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Australia and Argentina square off in a key Rugby Championship match, which will go a long way into deciding who finishes second behind New Zealand. After three rounds, the two sides have one win each.
Australia came into last week’s match against South Africa having lost 6 games in a row (getting battered by NZ in the first 2 rounds of the Championship) and they quickly went down 3-14 to the Boks. At that point, things seemed beyond repair. However, Australia (whose 6 consecutive losses all came vs. New Zealand and England) showed amazing character to come back and beat the Boks by 6 points. Indeed, South Africa was poor and made the Wallabies looked better than they were, but Australia did play its best rugby since the World Cup. The handling errors went away, Foley and Cooper finally clicked together at No.12 and No.10 but, most importantly, the atitude was brilliant and unquestionable. Australia utterly dominated South Africa for the entire match and should have really won it by 10-15 points.
Argentina is having its best ever Rugby Championship campaign so far. After losing in South Africa via a last minute try, they bounced back to beat the Springboks for the first time ever in Argentina and played incredible rugby for 50 minutes in New Zealand, until collapsing physically (again), losing by 35 points (they were down by only 2 after 50 minutes). Some great stuff for the Pumas, but yet again they can not sustain the same rhythm for the entire match – Argentina was battered and dominated in the last 15-30 minutes in all three games they played so far in this Rugby Championship.
Bet on Australia vs. Argentina and claim your 100% (100 €) freebet at Ohmbet now!Team news & lineups:
Australia continues to have serious injury problems at the center position, but this is old news. They will make just one change to the lineup that dismantled South Africa. Argentina is still without key players Bosch, Imhoff and Ayerza, but now other injuries are starting to pile up. The Pumas will make 5 changes to the side that lost in New Zealand.
Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Samu Kerevi, 12 Bernard Foley, 11 Reece Hodge, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 David Pocock, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dean Mumm, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Stephen Moore (c), 1 Scott Sio
Argentina: 15 Joaquín Tuculet, 14 Santiago Cordero, 13 Matías Moroni, 12 Santiago González Iglesias, 11 Lucas González Amorosino, 10 Nicolás Sánchez, 9 Tomás Cubelli, 8 Facundo Isa, 7 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Matías Alemanno, 4 Javier Ortega Desio, 3 Ramiro Herrera, 2 Agustín Creevy (c), 1 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro
Argentina has not won in Australia since 1983 and lost 11 out of the last 12 Head 2 Head meetings. The two teams met twice last year, with Australia winning both: 34-9 in the Rugby Championship (in Argentina) and 29-15 in the World Cup semifinals.
Listen, if this match was played in the first, second or even third round, I would actually give Argentina a shot to win. But right now, I just don`t believe they can stay competitive for 80 minutes. It`s not even the fact that Australia is better, even if you might be tempted to rate them highly after last week’s win over South Africa. But you can’t go from being horrible to being great after just one match.
The Wallabies are getting better, true – things that were working horribly are starting to click (Foley – Cooper, forward play, lineuts, handling), but they still have problems and they aren’t that much better than Argentina (even if Folau and Pocock are difference makers the Pumas don’t quite have). As previously stated, many of those things that were clicking last week were facilitated by South Africa’s poor play.
The physical factor is what I think will be Argentina’s demise today. Two rounds ago, Argentina put on a huge effort to defeat South Africa and they could not completely recover in time for the next round, even if they had a two week break (as opposed to a one week break now). They put on another colossal effort for 50 minutes against New Zealand, but ended up losing the last 25 minutes with a 0-33 scoreline! They were drained, dead on their feet and I can see the Pumas being absolutely exhausted in this clash, having nothing left in the tank, especially with new injuries piling up.
Argentina’s biggest problem against the top teams has always been their inability to sustain the same level for 80 minutes, always collapsing in the last 20 minutes or so. Circumstances for this to happen have never been bigger than they are now. Weak bench, missing players, two huge efforts in a row, just one week of break, these are massive warning signs.
Expect a reasonable performance from Argentina in the first half, but once the legs get tired and they have to move to their weak bench (which is getting even weaker as injuries pile up), Wallabies should run away with this. The handicap line is reasonable at 8.5 – 9 points, I will play it a little bit safer and my tip will be Australia to cover the 8 point spread. A bet on Australia to win the second half by -4,5 points also makes sense, but that bet is almost nowhere to find unfortunately (just MarathonBet has it on offer). Still, I would not be surprised if this time they will look tired right from the start.
Bottom line, I`m betting on Australia to win this meeting by 8+ points and I`m investing 10 units on the pick. Prediction: Australia – Argentina 33 – 21.
Pick: Australia -8
Odds: 1.86 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8.60
Event date: 17 September
