South Africa – Australia

South Africa will host Australia in Pretoria in the 5th round of the Rugby Championship. Despite the fact that New Zealand has already won the competition, the match still holds great importance, as both teams are fighting to finish second, but also to avoid the wooden spoon.

South Africa has been hands down the worst team in the tournament so far. They have been dirt poor in all 4 matches. After a lucky last minute home win over Argentina, they lost in Argentina, lost in Australia and lost by 28 points in New Zealand. The Boks were slow and uninspired in all those matches, even if they had chances to win in Argentina and Australia, also looking decent for an hour or so against New Zealand. But considering that South Africa has the 2nd best squad in the competition, expectations were much higher – one win in 4 matches is simply a disaster. Coach Allister Coetzee, politically appointed, seems to be the man responsible for South Africa’s poor results so far.

Australia was absolutely destroyed by New Zealand in the first two matches of the Rugby Championship, but they looked pretty decent in the third round, beating South Africa 23 – 17 at home, coming back from 3-14! After that display I was convinced that they would roll over a tired Argentina 2 weeks ago and indeed they won 36-20, but Australia’s level was actually disappointing. They raced to an incredible 21-0 lead after 10 minutes, but they were poor after that. Argentina, a team that was tired and always fades away late, won the last 70 minutes 20-15 and dominated the game – so the Wallabies, who are also hit by injuries, are still a work in progress and still have a lot of weaknesses.

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Team news & lineups:

The big news for South Africa is that they get Lambie back, even if he was surprisingly chosen to start at No.15 as opposed to No.10. At the very least, his kicking game will be a huge plus for South Africa. The other two changes include Steyn over Jantjies at No.10 (upgrade) and Paige over De Klerk (strange choice). Australia mill miss key player David Pocock, which will be a huge blow at the No.8 position, the type of absence that can change the game.

South Africa: 15 Patrick Lambie, 14 Bryan Habana, 13 Jessie Kriel, 12 Juan de Jongh, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Rudy Paige, 8 Warren Whiteley, 7 Teboho Mohoje, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Vincent Koch, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Tendai Mtawarira

Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Samu Kerevi, 12 Bernard Foley, 11 Reece Hodge,10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Sean McMahon, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dean Mumm, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Scott Sio

Australia has won two close matches against South Africa in the last two meetings, but they lost 4 out of the last 7 and have not won in South Africa since 2011. Over the years, both teams have been dominant at home against the other (South Africa won 33 out of 43 home matches vs the Wallabies).

At the start of the Championship Australia was in absolute shambles and they were humiliated by New Zealand, looking as poor as they ever did. Their wins over South Africa and New Zealand have sparked talks about improvement, but did they really improve? South Africa was absolutely dreadful and still almost won, while Argentina had a mental collapse in the opening 10 minutes and dominated Australia after that. Both those matches were at home for the Wallabies, which was a huge advantage.

They do look a bit improved and the peculiar combination of Foley at 12 and Cooper at 10 is working better, but there are still serious problems in the team, as Argentina clearly showed two weeks ago. Pocock missing will be a catastrophic blow for Australia, as he is the type of game changing rugby player (arguably the best player in the world at the breakdown) and the Wallabies will be in big trouble without him.

A fantastic thing for South Africa is that coach Coetzee finally decided to drop Jantjies from the No.10 position, with Morne Steyn taking his place. Even if Steyn is past his best and he has never really been a game changer, he is a massive upgrade over Jantjies, who was absolutely disastrous in this championship. He missed a ton of penalty kicks and gifted a try to Australia two weeks ago after dropping the ball in his own 22 following an Australian long kick – a mistake which gets you knocked out from any junior rugby team.

As poor as South Africa was in this tournament, if you put a decent player instead of Jantjies, they win in Argentina and they win in Australia – those matches were lost by Jantjies. Steyn will at least make most of his penalty kicks (or Lambie, depending who is chosen to take them) and he will not make horrific mistakes, so this swap at No.10 (+ Lambie at No.15) could actually mean 6-10 extra points for South Africa.

Refereeing is also a big plus for South Africa here. Wayne Barnes likes to fragment the game and give away a lot of penalties, so that will play right into the hand of the Boks, who love this type of game – as opposed to Australia, who play more free flowing rugby and will be frustrated by the interruptions.

Neither team is looking great at the moment. Australia seems better, but I believe that is only due to misleading circumstances. South Africa has been dirt poor so far, but they are definitely better than Australia player for player and have an improved starting 15 for this match. At home they should really be able to win a gritty, not so spectacular match. They should dominate the tempo of the game, making it slow and physical, eliminating Australia’s slight advantage on the wings and using their stronger scrum, stronger kicking game and stronger forward play. With David Pocock out for Australia, South Africa might very well be able to dominate the breakdown and if that happens, the match is won.

All in all, my tip on this clash is South Africa to win. They have more quality in their ranks, play at home and have plenty of positive circumstances (Lambie back, Jantjies out, Pocock missing, Barnes refereeing). I`m not betting handicaps because it might be close (might also be easy) and not too pretty, but I am very confident that this is the type of match that South Africa will win – one way or the other. That’s why I will invest maximum stakes on the bet, at pretty solid odds. Prediction: South Africa – Australia 24 – 20.

Pick: South Africa
Odds: 1.67 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 6.70
Event date: 1 October