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Highly anticipated clash in the last round of the Rugby Championship, with South Africa trying to secure the 2nd place in the standings and New Zealand going for the record of consecutive wins at test level. A victory today for the All Blacks will tie that record.
South Africa has faced a lot of criticism in this tournament and most of it for good reason, as the Boks have played really poor rugby. However, they did have their moments and the reality is that this team is a bit better than it`s made out to be. They are on the back of a crucial 18-10 home win over Australia, a horrible rugby game in which South Africa did not score a single try. The boot of Steyn has been the key. The replacement of Jantjies (who has been an absolute disaster in the first 4 rounds) with Steyn at No.10 was crucial, even if the latter is past his best and has never quite been a game changer.
New Zealand continues to cruise in this Rugby Championship and you just can’t say enough about this team, which I`m starting to seriously believe is (or will be) the best in Rugby Union history. The All Blacks have demolished everybody in this tournament, scored 4+ tries in each game and won all matches by 19+ points. Their closest game was last week in Argentina, but that 19 point win was very misleading. New Zealand was cruising (despite resting a number of players) until they had 2 men sent off in the second half, when Argentina spent 20+ minutes at the New Zealand 5 meter line, trying scrum after scrum after scrum and eventually converting twice. I have to admit that, at the end of the game, I still could not believe how I won my pick on Argentina to cover a 20,5 point spread.
Bet on South Africa – New Zealand and get your 100% (100 €) bonus at Ohmbet now!Team news & lineups:
South Africa has lost Paige and Kriel to injuries in the last round and those will be the only changes to the lineup that beat Australia. New Zealand has recalled the big guns after resting some of them against Argentina and they will make 4 changes to last week’s lineup. Aaron Smith is suspended.
South Africa: 15 Patrick Lambie, 14 Francois Hougaard, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Warren Whiteley, 7 Teboho Mohoje, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Vincent Koch, 2 Adriaan Strauss (c), 1 Tendai Mtawarira
New Zealand: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Israel Dagg, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Waisake Naholo, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Joe Moody
New Zealand has won 8 of the last 9 meetings against South Africa, but only 3 of those wins would have covered today’s 11,5 point handicap. One of them was the earlier meeting in this Rugby Championship, when New Zealand won by 28.
This should be a really interesting clash, the Boks are desperate to end a disappointing tournament on a high and show their worth against the top side in the World, while also securing the 2nd place. New Zealand allowed themselves a bit of an “off day” in Argentina (still won by 19) and will be pumped up for the last game of the tournament against a traditional rival, trying to equal the record of 17 consecutive wins at test level. That`s very important, as last week I successfully backed Argentina to cover the spread against the All Blacks thinking about changes in the team and lack of motivation. That won`t be the case in South Africa.
From all the sides in the Rugby Championship, South Africa is definitely the best suited to take on New Zealand. Their style of slowing the game down and kicking into touch makes it a bit difficult for the All Blacks to play their devastating brand of running rugby.
Right now South Africa is not playing too well and their style will not be enough to challenge for the win. But even in the current form and with their current problems, I do expect the Boks to put on a hell of an effort at home and give New Zealand a fight.
Expect South Africa to play slow, make it physical, kick some penalties and challenge the All Blaks at times. But that doesn`t mean they have a shot to win, or keep it within 10 points. The handicap line is simply too low.
This New Zealand team can score 20 on you in 10 minutes, so no matter how close the game seems, it’s a monumental task to keep it within 10 – 15 points at the end. Hell, Argentina kept it ultra close in New Zealand for 50 minutes a month ago, they were trailing by 2 points and seemed to have the momentum – they lost by 35! Even South Africa themselves were competitive for most part in New Zealand, but lost by 28.
When it’s all said and done, the All Blacks are simply at another level and should win by 12+ points even if this Springbok team has its best game of the tournament. Morne Steyn was decisive for the Springboks last week against Australia, but he`s not the kind of player to be able to have an impact against the All Blacks. My tip is New Zealand to win and cover the 11,5 point handicap. 8 units worth of confidence on this bet. Prediction: South Africa – New Zealand 16 – 32.
Pick: New Zealand -11,5
Odds: 1.91 @ Slbet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 8 October
