Plzen – Astra

Viktoria Plzen will host out of form Romanian champions Astra Giurgiu in the Europa League Group E, third round.

Viktoria Plzen is in pretty good shape right now, putting together a run of 10 matches without a loss in all competitions and getting two solid draws in Europa League against Roma (home) and Austria Wien (away). The team is in a good position to qualify but they obviously need to win this match in order to maintain their chances.

The situation at Astra could not be worse. Last year’s champions in Romania, the visitors are very close to extinction. Players are not paid, the manager is threatening to leave everyday and a handful of key players already left the club. As a result, Astra is currently on the 12th place in Romania (out of 14!) and lost both matches in the Europa League group stage, conceding 7 goals from Austria Wien (2-3, home) and Roma (0-4, away).

Astra is in total crisis, they might relegate and go bankrupt this season and I can well see them finishing with 0 points in this group. The enthusiasm at the start of the season allowed them to achieve a shock qualification to the group stages over West Ham (though very lucky), but right now I doubt the players and coaching staff are even interested in performing anymore. Sure, they will try to put on a good show in the European Competition, but atmosphere at the club is abysmal and Astra’s form is even worse.

Plzen might not be world beaters, but they are a better team than Astra, they play at home, their morale is incomparably better and they are in (very) good form. After two positive draws against Roma and Austria Wien, Plzen now has to build on that and claim their first win in the group stage – otherwise those draws were for nothing.

I can see Plzen doing the job here and if Astra performs like in the last weeks, the hosts might even run away with the game. I believe Astra’s horrid defensive setup should facilitate Viktoria Plzen covering the spread.

My tip is Plzen to win and cover the -1 asian handicap. I think that at the very least this bet will be void, can’t see Astra taking points against anybody right now. Prediction: Viktoria Plzen – Astra Giurgiu 2-0.

Pick: Viktoria Plzen (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.68 @ Slbet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.44
Event date: 20 October