Copil – Darcis

Marius Copil and Steve Darcis will meet for the second time in two weeks, this time with the title at the Budapest challenger (indoor hard) on the table.

Marius Copil is playing his best tennis of the season, reaching the ATP Antwerp quarterfinal last week (defeated Darcis 2-0, lost to Goffin 1-2) and now cruising here in Budapest. Copil has not lost a set this week against Tepavac, Millot, Fucsovics and a red hot Medvedev. He has won 8 of his last 9 matches, with the only loss coming against Goffin in a match where Copil competed and won a set. The 175th ranked Romanian is playing well above his ranking, like he always does for a couple of weeks in the season – usually in these indoor hard tournaments which favor his big serve and forehand.

Darcis wasn`t as impressive as Copil this week, as he benefited from Istomin’s retirement in the quarterfinals and he had to work really hard for a 2-1 win over De Schepper in the semifinals. The Belgian is in good form, but not particularly spectacular. He was easily beaten by Copil last week in the Antwerp second round (6-7 2-6) and he is alternating good, solid points with unforced errors during his matches.

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Copil leads the Head 2 Head against Darcis 3-1, which is really impressive considering the fact that Darcis is the more accomplished player. All meetings were on hard courts and Copil leads the H2H 2-1 on indoor hard. It seems like Copil has a matchup advantage over Darcis, which is not that surprising considering the fact that the Belgian tends to struggle against big servers.

Copil is the kind of player that struggles for most of the year, but really flourishes for 1 or 2 weeks during a season. In that timespan, he plays at another level and can do great things, as his talent permits it. He has wins over top players like Cilic or Simon and close matches against guys like Dimitrov or Goffin (last week). Point is, he has the ability to play big time tennis and he is very hard to stop when he is in the zone – that is clearly the case now.

Darcis on the other hand is playing well but he`s not in particularly great form, he wasn`t that impressive to reach this final. Looking at the sheer level of tennis, he is clearly below Copil right now – just like he was last week in Antwerp. I wouldn`t dwell much on the fact that Copil beat Darcis 7-6 6-2 last week, as each match is different, but it does hold some relevance and at the very least shows that Copil is a deserving favorite in this match.

Knowing Copil, I am confident that in this kind of form he should beat Darcis – and the matchup advantage only make his chances bigger. I was hoping for better odds on Copil due to the ranking and name of the two players, but the bookies (or rather the punters that moved the odds down from 2.15) did their job very well. They did not do it in the semis, when Copil was priced at 2.50 against Medvedev and I am still kicking myself for not taking that bet like I wanted to.

Still, the odds are decent today as well, as Copil really is the favorite in this match. My tip is Copil to win, but I will not invest more than 7 units because most of the value on the odds is lost. If the price stayed at 2.15, I might have considered maximum stakes. Prediction: Marius Copil – Steve Darcis 6-4 7-6.

Pick: Copil
Odds: 1.83 @ Slbet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.81
Event date: 30 October