Ireland – New Zealand

Ireland and New Zealand will square off Saturday, at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin, in a hugely anticipated Rugby test match, after Ireland shockingly ended the 18 match winning streak of the amazing All Blacks two weeks ago in Chicago.

Ireland was a 23 point underdog in the recent meeting two weeks ago in Chicago and nobody gave the Shamrocks a chance to even stay close against the mighty All Blacks (including me). However, Ireland put on a performance for the ages and claimed their first win in history over New Zealand. Not only that, but they fully deserved they 40-29 victory. They backed that up with a 31 point win over Canada last week, when Ireland rested most of its main players – having this match in mind. Ireland’s run in these two test matches was slightly surprising, as they only finished 3rd in the Six Nations at the start of the year and did not look like world beaters before that epic meeting with New Zealand in Chicago.

The loss to Ireland ended a record breaking streak of 18 consecutive wins for New Zealand. The All Blacks looked absolutely unbeatable this year and arguably seemed like the best rugby side in the history of the sport, demolishing opponents by huge margins, largely due to their ability of exploding and scoring tens of points in virtually minutes. Prior to the Ireland loss, New Zealand won 7 matches against Australia, South Africa and Argentina (Rugby Championship + Bledisloe Cup) by an average margin of 29.3 points. The loss to Ireland was shocking, but New Zealand bounced back last week with a 58 point win in Italy, resting players and not even trying too much.

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Team news & lineups:

Both teams will field the best lineups available after resting players in last week’s test matches. Ireland gets O’Brien back, a big plus for them, but he didn`t play in 9 months before featuring against Canada last week. Murphy got injured for Ireland, who also misses a few other important players. New Zealand gets a huge edge by the return of Retallick and Whitelock, 2 of their most influential players.

Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Jared Payne, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Simon Zebo, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O’Brien, 6 CJ Stander, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Donnacha Ryan, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rory Best (c), 1 Jack McGrath
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Iain Henderson, 20 Josh van der Flier, 21 Kieran Marmion, 22 Paddy Jackson, 23 Garry Ringrose

New Zealand: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Israel Dagg, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Squire, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Joe Moody

The H2H record shows that New Zealand won 27 out of 29 meetings, with 1 draw and 1 win for Ireland. However, the recent Irish win is obviously the most relevant result in this Head 2 Head matchup.

Listen, Ireland’s win two weeks ago in Chicago was a joy to behold, but it will not happen again. The Irish looked absolutely possessed in that match, playing out of their minds, doing things and acting in a way you rarely see on a sports pitch. You watched that match and you understood that it was something you might not see again in your lifetime.

I`m sure Ireland will be desperate to back up that win with another huge performance, but it is highly doubtful (to say the least) that they could get anywhere near that performance.

At the same time, New Zealand was way off the standard they set for themselves in the last two years. In the match against Ireland two weeks ago, the All Blacks looked tired after a long season and that was the main reason for that result. New Zealand just couldn’t get it going as they made a ton of uncharacteristic handling errors, pretty clearly due to fatigue, but probably also due to arrogance.

You might expect New Zealand to be even more fatigued today than before the recent meeting against Ireland, as they have two more matches under their belt. However, since they lost to the Irish the All Blacks have targeted this match for revenge and they fielded a second string unit against Italy last week. This is it for the All Blacks, the biggest match in this end of the season and they will give it their absolute all to avenge that loss in Chicago – a very scary thought for the Irish.

Getting Whitelock and Retallick back is also a huge plus for New Zealand, as these two are arguably the best players in the World at their position and in the previous meeting, Ireland excelled exactly in their zones, but with these guys back, New Zealand will dominate the forward play and the scrum.

I think Ireland will be pumped up at the start, playing with a huge amount of desire, but I can see New Zealand reverting back to their usual level and punishing the Shamrocks. At one point New Zealand will score 2 or 3 tries in a row and that will be the end of it. They are without a doubt the superior team in all aspects of the game, except the kicking game, when Ireland is not superior, but can match the All Blacks.

Fact is that Ireland is judged by the public and the bookies on the basis of a single game, while New Zealand has taken the sport to a new level and has been dominant for years. At the moment, New Zealand should be expected to win by 20+ points against anybody and Ireland makes no exception. Even two weeks ago in Chicago, New Zealand clawed their way back from 8-30 to 29-33 in 20 minutes and had chances to seal the win, but made handling errors (which they don`t usually do) and Ireland took advantage.

I expect New Zealand to be absolutely devastating considering that they are a hurt animal. I find Ireland’s win two weeks ago to be an advantage for New Zealand coming into this match and I fully anticipate the All Blacks covering the point spread. They were not themselves two weeks ago, but after that loss they will surely treat this match with full focus, I expect much less handling errors and the All Blacks should look like the team that beat everybody by 25+ points in the recent months.

If New Zealand plays at their full potential and with a chip on their shoulder, like I expect them to, they could win this by 30+. But even a solid, usual performance by the All Blacks should see them covering the current point spread.

When it`s all said and done, fact remains that New Zealand is head and shoulders above anyone else in World Rugby right now. In their 9 matches played this Autumn / Winter, they won 8 of them by 19+ points (home and away, against better teams than Ireland) and lost to Ireland in that Chicago fluke. My tip is New Zealand to cover the 15,5 point handicap. Odds are dropping big time on the New Zealand bet and I don`t think you will find such a price on the 15.5 point handicap come game time. Prediction: Ireland – New Zealand 19 – 44.

Pick: New Zealand -15,5
Odds: 1.90 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9
Event date: 19 November