Scotland – Argentina

Scotland will host Argentina in an important Rugby test match, set to be played at Murrayfield. Scotland and Argentina are two of the most entertaining teams in World Rugby, but they usually fall just short of winning matches and as a result are currently fighting eachother for the 8th position in the World Rankings – a very important spot.

Scotland, who keeps on getting better and better under Vern Cotter, played an excellent match last week at Murrayfield against Australia. However, the Scots fell just short and lost by a single point (22-23) in the closing stages of the match. It was a heartbreaking defeat for Scotland after a great display of running rugby, but that is becoming an usual occurrence as Scotland plays well and entertaining, but loses most matches in the Six Nations and in the tests against the elite rugby teams.

Argentina is in a similar situation with Scotland, consistently playing very well but usually falling short of victories. However, the Pumas truly are an elite side and their losses are mostly coming at the hands of the Top 3 Southern Hemisphere teams, as they have to play them every year in the rugby championship. Argentina is coming after an excellent display in the Rugby Championship (but just one win), a big win over Japan and a 20-24 loss last week against Wales. Losing against Wales was a disappointment, but Argentina looked tired in that match after playing so much rugby recently. They still could have won it, but the offensive performance was abysmal, with a huge, uncharacteristic number of handling errors. The Pumas also conceded a ton of penalties, another sign of fatigue.

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Team news & lineups:

Scotland will make 4 changes to the lineup that lost against Australia and will field an uncapped player in Magnus Bradbury. Richie Gray got injured last week and will not play. Argentina will field the exact same starting lineup that lost in Wales. They have the same squad and pretty much the same lineup they used in the Rugby Championship.

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Alex Dunbar, 11 Tommy Seymour, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Greig Laidlaw (c), 8 John Barclay, 7 Hamish Watson, 6 Magnus Bradbury, 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Grant Gilchrist, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Fraser Brown, 1 Allan Dell

Argentina: 15 Joaquín Tuculet, 14 Matías Moroni, 13 Matías Orlando, 12 Juan Martín Hernández, 11 Santiago Cordero, 10 Nicolás Sánchez, 9 Martín Landajo, 8 Facundo Isa, 7 Javier Ortega Desio, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Matías Alemanno, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Ramiro Herrera, 2 Agustín Creevy (c), 1 Lucas Noguera

The two teams met just twice in the last 4 years, both times in 2014 and Scotland won both times: 21-19 in Cordoba and 41-31 at Murrayfield. The Scots got the better of Argentina recently, winning 4 of the 5 meetings since 2010 onwards. However, this will obviously be a different game between two teams that have changed in the last few years.

Both teams are hungry for wins and will be desperate to claim one in this match, but you have to feel Argentina has the first chance. If Scotland is losing to the weaker Northern Hemisphere sides, Argentina is losing against the likes of South Africa, New Zealand and Australia. The Pumas are probably a Top 5 side in the World and are clearly a better side than Scotland – who is playing well and is close to the elite, but not quite there yet.

Scotland’s shaky wing defense and their mediocre forward pack might get them in trouble against an Argentina team that has exactly the weapons needed to exploit those weaknesses. The two teams are rather similar in styles of play, but Argentina defends much better, is physically stronger and simply better overall. Scotland does not have a matchup advantage so they need to beat a better team at their own game – always an unlikely task.

Argentina did play a lot of rugby recently and they looked tired last week against Wales. They will field the same lineup today, so there is a question if they will be up to the task physically. That is a risk for the Pumas, but what is certain is that they will put in their best effort, as they always do. Given their fighting spirit and last week`s poor offensive performance, I believe they will dust themselves off and be able to overcome fatigue.

While Scotland played close to the top of their potential last week against Australia, the Argentinians have plenty of room from improvement on their performance against Wales. Chances are Scotland won`t play better than last week, while Argentina should.

I just can’t see Argentina making as many handling errors as they did against Wales, or giving away as many penalties. Their offense was dreadful in that game, nullifying an excellent defensive effort. I believe Argentina, even after a long stretch of games, will put on an improved offensive performance. And, in all honesty, even if they play at the same level as they did against Wales, they would be favorites here.

My tip is Argentina to cover the 1,5 point spread. Prediction: Scotland – Argentina 24 – 28.

Pick: Argentina +1,5
Odds: 1.97 @ 1xBet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.79
Event date: 19 November