Wales – South Africa

Wales and South Africa are the Tier 1 nations which seem to be in the worst state right now, so this will be a very important rugby test for both of them, hoping for a result that will provide a building base for next year.

Wales has been poor under Rob Howley in these Autumn Internationals. A horrible 24 point loss to Australia was followed by a 4 point win against Argentina and finally by a shockingly poor performance in a 3 point win against Japan. The Welsh played decent rugby in the Argentina match and actually deserved their win – even if it was facilitated by a lot of Argentinian errors. But in the other two matches they were all over the place and it culminated with that tiny 3 point win against Japan last week, a match that Wales was expected to win by at least 20+ points (the handicap line was set at 27,5).

For all of Wales’ problems, South Africa is doing even worse. They finished 3rd in the Rugby Championship a few months ago (including a record breaking loss to New Zealand), but they actually looked worse than 4th placed Argentina. After the tournament, South Africa went from bad to worse. They drew with the Barbarians, lost by 16 points to England and last week they were embarrassed by Italy in an 18-20 loss, one of the worst results in South African rugby history. The quota system and the politically appointed coaching staff have ruined SA rugby, the team has no direction and the gameplan (if there is one) is shockingly predictable.

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Team news & lineups:

Wales will revert to the lineup that played well and defeated Argentina two weeks ago, with a single change. South Africa has shaken up the lineup big time in an attempt to try new things, as the old plan is clearly not working. Coach Coetzee made 6 changes in the starting XV, including fielding three uncapped players. Bryan Habana is among the notable absentees.

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Scott Williams, 11 Liam Williams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Luke Charteris, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Gethin Jenkins

South Africa: 15 Johan Goosen‚ 14 Ruan Combrinck‚ 13 Francois Venter‚ 12 Rohan Janse van Rensburg‚ 11 Jamba Ulengo‚ 10 Elton Jantjies‚ 9 Faf de Klerk‚ 8 Warren Whiteley‚ 7 Uzair Cassiem‚ 6 Nizaam Carr‚ 5 Lood de Jager‚ 4 Pieter-Steph du Toit‚ 3 Lourens Adriaanse‚ 2 Adriaan Strauss (c)‚ 1 Tendai Mtawarira

Wales have lost to South Africa in 17 out of the last 18 H2H matches, dating back from 2000. The Welsh have never been good against the Southern Hemisphere teams, but this is most likely their best chance ever to defeat South Africa. What’s more, Wales has been ultra competitive in the last 3 H2H games – losing by 1 point away in 2014, winning by 6 points at home in the same year and pushing a much, much better South Africa to the brink last year in the Rugby World Cup (late 23-19 win for the Boks).

You would expect the Boks to try and bounce back in Wales after the Italy humiliation, but in all honesty, right now they don`t look like a team that has it in them. The atmosphere is horrible, the pathetic coaching staff gets no respect (deservingly so) and there`s just no unity in the team. The revamped lineup also raises questions about chemistry and ability to avoid mistakes.

After playing so much rugby lately, I doubt South Africa has the physical resources to suddenly bounce back and find a new level of play out of nowhere, in the last game of the year, on the road in the Northern Hemisphere.

As poor as Wales have been this Autumn, at least they seem to have a gameplan and they have a more experienced team, which knows how to play together and on a good day they can avoid making mistakes – just like it was the case two weeks ago against Argentina. What’s more, they play at home.

One key aspect of this game should be penalty taking and this is where Wales has a huge advantage. Having superior goal kickers is always an important edge, but an even bigger one when both teams are struggling.

Wales has one of the best kickers in the world, Halfpenny and plenty of other options to kick at goal from all kinds of distances. Meanwhile, South Africa will rely on Jantjies, who has been absolutely atrocious for them in the Rugby Championship, missing penalties and conversions from all over the pitch – South Africa would have probably finished last if he would not have been replaced by Morne Steyn in the last few matches.

Expect an unconvincing performance from both sides, but Wales should be fresher, more positive and I expect them to make less mistakes and handling errors. Finally, their much better penalty taking will seal it for Wales at home. I`ll stay away from handicaps given the fact that Wales has been far from impressive and because I don`t expect many tries – but I definitely see the Welsh winning this without too many problems. My tip is a straight up Wales win. Prediction: Wales – South Africa 24 – 16.

Pick: Wales
Odds: 1.55 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4.40
Event date: 26 November