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As the last round of the 2017 Six Nations unfolds this Saturday, with England already winning the tournament, no less than 4 teams have a shot at claiming the second place in the standings. France and Wales are among them, so fireworks are expected when the two sides meet in Paris.
France is coming after a 22 point win in Italy. It wasn`t a particularly convincing performance from the French, but it was a good win and yet another stone added in them building a title contending team for the next few years. France also beat a shorthanded Scotland team by 6 at home earlier in the tournament, but their best performances came (surprisingly) on the road – as they lost by just 3 in England and by 10 in Ireland.
Wales are on the back of a morale boosting 22-9 win over Ireland, arguably their best performance of the tournament. The Welsh have been excellent at home but have struggled a bit on the road – they did bit Italy in Rome but it wasn`t their best performance and they were humbled by a shorthanded Scotland at Murrayfield, 13-29.
Bet on France vs Wales and claim your 100% (100 Eur) bonus at Ohmbet.com now!Team news & lineups:
Both teams are healthy and will field the same lineups they did last week, with a single exception (Vahaamahina returns for France).
France: 15 Brice Dulin, 14 Noa Nakaitaci, 13 Rémi Lamerat, 12 Gaël Fickou, 11 Virimi Vakatawa, 10 Camille Lopez, 9 Baptiste Serin, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Kévin Gourdon, 6 Fabien Sanconnie, 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Sébastien Vahaamahina, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Guilhem Guirado (c), 1 Cyril Baille
Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Scott Williams, 11 Liam Williams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Rhys Webb, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Sam Warburton, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Jake Ball, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Rob Evans
Wales is currently 4th and they suffered a lot of criticism in the past year, but if you look closer and take it game by game, they have actually been very good in this tournament. Aside for the ugly loss in Scotland they played very good and consistent rugby, beating Ireland convincingly, beating Italy convincingly and losing a close game to England – a game they fully deserved to win and in which they were very unlucky at the end.
France on the other hand has been overrated throughout the tournament. The reasons are simple – they were expected for so long to start being competitive and when they finally are, it`s a classic overreaction. Secondly, their ability to play beautiful, expansive rugby for short stretches can fool the mind and the eye. Les Bleus are playing well, no doubt, but there are many things they still need to put in order. If they didn`t get a bit lucky against Scotland, they could have failed to win a single game aside for the Italy one.
If there`s one thing France is struggling with (well, two things), it`s to score tries and to deliver the killer blow, put teams away. Even when playing great quality rugby, there are still handling errors and mistakes made in good positions. That happened even against Italy and it will make it very hard for France to cover the handicap against a linear but disciplined and solid Welsh team.
Wales excels exactly where France struggles – they take their chances and can avoid big time errors. What`s more, Wales’ main strength is their defense, which will create problems for a French team that has problems scoring tries.
Wales is the better side and normally they should win against the French, but playing in Paris will be a huge advantage for Les Bleus, making them favorites according to the bookies. It`s hard to argue with the home court advantage in this 2017 Six Nations, but given the quality of the teams and the matchup, it`s hard to expect France to win by anything else than a small margin, at best. The Welsh took note on the difficulty of winning on the road and their statements look good, as they said they prepared to be better this time around away from home. That is good news for Welsh fans.
Wales beat France each time in the last 5 direct meetings. All wins were by 7+ points and two of them were in Paris, so the Welsh have clearly dominated Les Bleus in recent years.
The value is pretty obviously on Wales here. I expect a very close game and even if France pulls it off (which I don`t think they will), it will probably be by a couple of points.
Wales just looks like the better team and particularly the better glued team. They are more secure with the ball and make less mistakes. France’s inability to score tries and their struggle to win close games could cost them victory. My tip is Wales to cover the 4 point handicap. Prediction: France – Wales 19 – 22.
Pick: Wales +4
Odds: 1.92 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.20
Event date: 18 March
