Munster – Saracens

Munster will take on reigning champions Saracens at Dublin’s Aviva Stadium, in a highly anticipated semifinal of the Rugby European Champions Cup. The tie will be played over a single leg.

Munster is having a great season so far, already qualifying for the playoffs in the domestic league from the second place, and impressing in the Champions Cup as well. They dismantled Toulouse 41-16 in the quarterfinals and have won their last 5 games in all competitions. While it`s true that Munster did struggle to claim close victories lately, that also because they rotated the squad in order to be fresh for this game.

Saracens rested all of their top guys at Northampton last weekend, but still claimed a win to mathematically qualify for the English Premiership playoffs. The Sarries are just third in the league, but they had problems with injuries early on. Lately, Saracens have re-affirmed themselves as the best team in European Rugby, winning 6 matches in a row in all competitions, convincingly, and destroying Glasgow Warriors 38-13 in the European Cup quarterfinals.

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Team news & lineups:

Both teams rested players last weekend and neither of them has fresh injury concerns. Munster keep missing one of their best players though, Conor Murray, and are shorthanded at the scrum half position.

Munster: 15 Simon Zebo, 14 Andrew Conway, 13 Jaco Taute, 12 Rory Scannell, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Tyler Bleyendaal, 9 Duncan Williams, 8 CJ Stander, 7 Tommy O’Donnell, 6 Peter O’Mahony (c), 5 Billy Holland, 4 Donnacha Ryan, 3 John Ryan, 2 Niall Scannell, 1 Dave Kilcoyne

Saracens: 15 Alex Goode, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Brad Barritt (c), 11 Sean Maitland, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Richard Wigglesworth, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 Jackson Wray, 6 Michael Rhodes, 5 George Kruis, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Vincent Koch, 2 Jamie George, 1 Mako Vunipola

Munster is having an excellent season and they are a force to be reckoned with at home. The atmosphere at Aviva Stadium in Dublin will surely be extraordinary, but it has to be said that this is not Munster’s usual home ground. While home court advantage will still help Munster a lot and there will be more fans at the Aviva Stadium than what Munster’s usual ground can accommodate, it won`t be quite the same as when they play at the legendary Thomond Park.

That being said, Munster is sure to bring a lot of energy in this game but it might not be enough against the reigning European Champions, Saracens.

The Sarries are pumping on all cylinders right now and it`s hard to see any European side beat them. They are better than Munster player for player, with an absolutely all star lineup which includes 6 players freshly selected for the British & Irish Lions squad (composed of the best players from England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland). They also own a plethora of other Internationals, including on the bench – which is definitely stronger than Munster’s.

Sarries also have the long rage of Farrell, who can bring extra points from long range penalties. Bleyendaal also has a very steady boot for Munster, but he can`t successfully kick from the half way line like Farrell can. In a match that is expected to be very physical and mostly decided by kicking at goal, this factor alone could bring Saracens 3-6 extra points over Munster.

As such, it`s hard to see what kind of solutions could Munster find, especially as the two teams play rather similar rugby, so it`s not like Munster could rely on a particular matchup or tactical surprise. They can`t dominate with their forwards, as Saracens has incredible quality and power there. They certainly can`t dominate the wide play – in the last round, Saracens completely shut down the backs of Glasgow Warriors, arguably the best European team when it comes to wing offense.

All in all this could be a close one if Munster brings their A game in front of an excited crowd, but Saracens have just too much quality all around to let this slip away. My tip is Saracens to win, odds on the bet have gone down and still are. Prediction: Munster – Saracens 16 – 21.

Pick: Saracens
Odds: 1.61 @ 10Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4.88
Event date: 22 April