Isner – Thompson

John Isner and Jordan Thompson will square off in the the last match scheduled to be played on Tuesday’s Roland Garros Men’s draw, first round.

Isner is coming after a fantastic showing in Rome, where he reached the semifinals after defeating the likes of Ramos, Wawrinka or Cilic, losing in three sets to eventual winner Zverev. It was an extremely surprising performance from Isner, after he failed to win consecutive matches for the entire year before Rome – yet he managed to reach a Masters semifinal on his worst surface, clay.

Jordan Thompson is having a solid year so far for his standards, making some noise on the ATP tour where he managed to defeat players like Ferrer, Joao Sousa, Feliciano Lopez or Paire. He has a 2-2 record since the start of the European clay court season and reached the second round at Lyon last week (def. Paire, lost to Khachanov).

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Isner and Thompson never met before on the ATP Tour. Both players usually ply their trade on fast surfaces, but fact is that Thompson actually has his best winning percentage on clay (67%, including challengers, futures, qualifiers), while Isner can also play well on the red dirt and is coming after that excellent showing in Rome.

If Isner comes in with the same form and intensity as in Rome, he could make some noise in this tournament – but that`s a big “if”. Aside from Rome, Isner was dreadful all year, and despite his performance two weeks ago, clay remains his worse surface.

Thompson has a good serve, is a solid clay court player and is playing some of the best tennis of his life, so he has a good shot to keep this match close – especially as Isner might not force things too much in the first round.

Isner is obviously one of the biggest servers on tour and given the above mentioned facts, both players should be pretty comfortable on serve here. A couple of tiebreaks might be on offer and I am going to take a chance and back one to happen in the first set – when both players will probably try to find their rhythm and not force things too much.

6 of Isner`s 8 matches on clay this season saw a first set tiebreak, while Thompson also played 2 first set tiebreaks in his 4 matches on European clay this season. Looking at all these facts, odds of 2.75 set by the bookies for this bet seem to have a lot of value. My tip is a first set tiebreak (over 12,5 games), I think chances are closer to 50-50 for this pick, rather than what the bookmakers are suggesting. Prediction: John Isner – Jordan Thompson 7-6 6-4 6-7 6-3.

Pick: First set Tiebreak – Yes
Odds: 2.75 @ Bet365
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 10.50
Event date: 30 May