Clermont – Toulon

Clermont and Toulon will square off in the French Top 14 final at Stade de France, Paris. Clermont is rated as a 6,5 point spread favorite by the bookmakers.

Clermont finished second in the regular season standings and put on a brilliant performance in the semifinals to defeat Racing 92. The score was 37-31, but it was actually an ultra dominant victory, as the score was 37 – 12 with less than 10 minutes to go in the game. Clermont’s excellent semifinal was not a surprise, as they have been arguably the second best team in European rugby this season and their recent form has been equally brilliant.

If Clermont was always expected to make the final, Toulon’s qualification was a surprise. Despite having a roster full of big names, Toulon never really got clicking this campaign, they finished 4th in the regular season, and could have easily lost in both their matches in the playoffs – against Castres (26-22) and La Rochelle (18-15). Toulon got a colossal break in the semifinals, as La Rochelle was the better team, but had a man sent off with 30 minutes to go, which allowed Toulon to come back.

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Team news & lineups:

Clermont continues to miss Spedding and has now also lost Van Der Merwe, but they just got Timani back from injury to replace him. Toulon continues to miss Habana and suffered a huge blow with the news that Halfpenny will not play in the final.

Clermont: 15 Nick Abendanon, 14 David Strettle, 13 Damian Penaud, 12 Rémi Lamerat, 11 Alivereti Raka, 10 Camille Lopez, 9 Morgan Parra, 8 Fritz Lee, 7 Judicaël Cancoriet, 6 Damien Chouly (c), 5 Sitaleki Timani, 4 Arthur Iturria, 3 David Zirakashvili, 2 Benjamin Kayser, 1 Raphaël Chaume

Toulon:15 James O’Connor, 14 Josua Tuisova, 13 Mathieu Bastareaud, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Anthony Belleau, 9 Sébastien Tillous-Borde, 8 Liam Gill, 7 Duane Vermeulen (c), 6 Juan Smith, 5 Romain Taofifenua, 4 Juandré Kruger, 3 Marcel Van der Merwe, 2 Guilhem Guirado, 1 Laurent Delboulbès

Toulon kind of stole this place in the final from La Rochelle, which has been the best team this season along with Clermont. La Rochelle showed in the semis that they deserved to reach the final, but everything collapsed when they had a man sent off in the 51st minute. At that point, La Rochelle was leading 15-6 and was clearly dominating – but eventually couldn`t overcome the red card and lost via a last second drop goal (after they missed 2 penalties at 15-15).

Clermont on the other hand cruised to the final and has been consistently good. As the season came to an end, they kept the same level and even stepped it up – winning 4 matches in a row in the Top 14 and performing admirably in the Champions Cup final against Saracens, even though they lost.

The two teams met three times this season. Toulon won by 2 points at home back in September. Clermont won the next two matches at home by 24 points (Top 14) and 20 points (Champions Cup). They dominated Toulon big time overall this season and those matches reflected the difference between these two sides.

Clermont’s overall brilliance is what should get them over the line against Toulon, but there are two major aspects of the game which should facilitate their victory – wing play and goal kicking.

Look for Clermont’s backs to dominate the slower and older Toulon backs, while goal kicking should bring Clermont 6-9 extra points compared to their opponents. Clermont has been arguably the best team in Europe when it comes to goal kicking this season, due to the consistency of Lopez and Parra. Toulon on the other hand misses one of the best kickers in the world, Halfpenny, so that will be brutal for them. They will certainly lose 3-6 points from his 50+ meter penalties he regularly hits.

One thing that might work in Toulon’s favor is the experience they have through the ranks, which could prove important in the final – with old legends like Nonu being theoretically made for matches like these. What`s more, Clermont are well known chokers in Top 14 finals, having a dreadful 1-11 record over the years (although most of the losses were tens of years ago).

However, after watching Clermont in the European final this year, I don`t think there is any danger regarding experience / chocking on the big stage. Even if Clermont lost the European final to Saracens, they showed great composure, clarity and fighting spirit. They did not choke and did not make silly mistakes. They came back after a bad start and put the best team in Europe under big pressure until the end. Saracens was just too good.

This Clermont team seems to have what it takes to perform in the big matches. They have played great rugby all year and are such a complete, well oiled machine. Toulon has been shaky the entire season and would have lost in the semifinals if La Rochelle stayed with 15 men.

Initially I was planning to go for the straight Clermont win at odds 1.40 or so, but Halfpenny’s absence makes me think the handicap is reasonably safe. Toulon will definitely score fewer points with Halfpenny out, as they will not get his 3-6 points per match from ~50 meter penalties. And, probably, they will lose another 3-6 points from medium difficulty kicks at goal, which he does not miss, but his replacement could. All this while Clermont has 2 brilliant kickers in Parra and Lopez.

I also think that Clermont will be more careful with the lead at the end of the match, after allowing 19 points in the last 10 minutes of the semifinals. That will probably make them stay focused until the end this time, if they have a solid lead. This and Halfpenny’s absence should weight a lot when it comes to covering the handicap and allow Clermont to win by 10+ points.

My tip is Clermont to cover the 6,5 point spread. If you feel like taking less risk, you can bet the straight win at anything above 1.35. Prediction: Clermont – Toulon 26 – 13.

Pick: Clermont -6,5
Odds: 1.98 @ Betsson
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.82
Event date: 4 June