Ostapenko – Wozniacki

Jelena Ostapenko and Caroline Wozniacki will square off in the Roland Garros quarterfinals, with Ostapenko currently enjoying a winning run against her more famous opponent.

Ostapenko has been incredibly consistent on clay this season, winning at least 3 matches in each of the 5 matches she played on the surface, and claiming a few good wins – including two against Wozniacki. The Latvian continued her good form here in Roland Garros, defeating Chirico, Puig, Tsurenko and Stosur, losing just two sets along the way (against Chirico in the 1st round and against Stosur in the 4th).

Caroline Wozniacki hasn`t been as solid as Ostapenko this year on clay, which is not surprising considering that the red dirt isn`t exactly her best surface. She hasn`t won 3 matches in a row prior to Roland Garros, but she managed to do it here by defeating Fourlis, Abanda, Bellis and Kuznetsova. Beating Kuznetsova was a great result but, nevertheless, Wozniacki lost a set in 3 of her 4 matches – and had plenty of ups and downs during this tournament.

Ostapenko leads the H2H 3-0 (2-0) on clay and actually defeated Wozniacki twice in the last couple of months – on green clay at Charleston (6-2 6-4) and on red clay in Prague (5-7 6-3 7-6). There seems to be a matchup advantage for Ostapenko against Wozniacki, considering she lost a single set to the Dane in 3 meetings.

Wozniacki is having an overall excellent season, but on clay she was rather shaky. This is not her best surface and is a clear disadvantage against Ostapenko, who absolutely loves the red dirt. The matchup disadvantage is also accentuated for Caroline on clay, as we saw in the recent meetings.

Wozniacki did look pretty good against Kuznetsova in the previous round and that was her best win on clay this season, but Ostapenko has been the more consistent player in the last few months. The matchup and the surface should make Ostapenko a slight favorite here, as opposed to Wozniacki being the favorite, as bookies seem to think.

My tip is Ostapenko to win. Wozniacki definitely has the quality to win this match, but I reckon Ostapenko has the first chance, so I feel there is real value on this bet. Prediction: Jelena Ostapenko – Caroline Wozniacki 7-6 2-6 6-4.

Pick: Ostapenko
Odds: 2.19 @ 1xBet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 8.33
Event date: 6 June