Warriors – Cavaliers

The Golden State Warriors will have the second shot at closing out the NBA finals, after blowing the previous one in Cleveland. The Warriors are now leading 3-1, with the Cavs finally able to get a win under their belt a few days ago and force a Game 5.

Golden State was dominant in the first three games and after going up 3-0, the Warriors seemed likely to sweep the Cavs in Game 4. However, GSW didn`t have the best game and was second best from start to finish, eventually losing by 21 points – with Kevin Durant pretty much the only player who showed up in that game.

Cleveland showed great character to dominate Game 4, LeBron and Kyrie Irving doing all they could to avoid an embarrassing sweep. The two had amazing performances, but received a lot of help from Kevin Love, as well as role players like JR Smith, Tristan Thompson or Richard Jeffereson. It remains to be seen if those guys can deliver in Oakland, as they have been dreadful at this venue in Games 1 and 2.

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Credit to the Cavs for showing up when their backs were against the wall, but Game 4 doesn`t change the fact that they have been overmatched and overplayed by Golden State in this series, and that they are clearly the inferior team. They really have no other way to win than to shoot lights out from the field (and even that may not be enough), while the Dubs can win in a ton of ways.

The Cavs needed an all time great performance in Game 4, shooting an outstanding 53.3% from three point range (24-45), a percentage that broke all kinds of records. They won`t get anywhere near that in Game 5, especially as the Warriors are the best team in the league when it comes to defending the 3 point shot.

Even if Lebron James and Kyrie Irving find a way to play lights out again, combining for 70-80 points while shooting ~55%, like they did in each of the last two games, that will not be enough. They need big time production from their role players, but it`s a known fact that such players perform much better at home – so it`s no surprise that Cleveland’s role players have been dreadful so far in Oakland, and chances are they will not produce much in Game 5.

Expect the Warriors to come out with a lot of intensity in this game, something they did not do in Game 4, especially as they have the memory of losing the finals from 3-1 up against Cleveland last year. Steph Curry, who has been great in this series, had a bad Game 4 and did not shoot the ball much, so I expect him to come out big tonight. As Steph goes the Warriors go, so a good game for him should get them over the line.

The Warriors won Games 1 and 2 by 22 and 19 points respectively. While this could be a tad more tight, with Cleveland fighting for its life, the 8 point spread should be covered rather easily. The bookies are back to giving the Cavs too much credit – they did it in the first 3 games, and value was all over the Dubs, just like now.

Unlike Game 4, when I tipped the Warriors to win on the road at ridiculously low odds, this time the price is back where I want it and I feel comfortable backing the Dubs. I regret the Game 4 bet, as it was a poor choice – I was about to back Cavs +6 but I believed I was overthinking the bet and eventually decided the Warriors are the simple choice, as they are just much better. That was a bad pick, but this one makes much more sense and there will be no reasons to regret it – win or lose.

My main tip is Golden State Warriors to win with a -8 point handicap, but I also love the bet for Steph Curry to score more than 27.5 points. He only shot 13 times in Game 4, so chances are he will be aggressive here. He averaged 28.7 points in the first three games despite letting Durant shoot more than him, something I don`t think will happen in Game 5 – so I will give the Steph Curry player special bet a solid try with 6 units as well, I can see him finishing with 30+.

I rarely have two bets on the same event and almost never invest more than 10 units on an event. This will be a very rare exception, I`m doing it for the first time in years because I analyzed this series from head to toe, and most importantly because the two bets are not interdependent. Prediction: Golden State Warriors – Cleveland Cavaliers 125 – 110.

Pick 1: Curry over 27.5 points
Odds: 1.90 @ 1xBet
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 5.40
Event date: 13 June

Pick 2: Warriors -8
Odds: 1.88 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.04
Event date: 13 June