Ward – Kovalev

Andre Ward and Sergey Kovalev will meet Saturday night in Las Vegas, in a highly anticipated rematch counting for the IBF, WBO and WBA Light Heavyweight titles. The two fighters met last year in November and Ward controversially won a mouthwatering contest, one of the best fights of 2016. Neither boxer has fought since that match.

The undefeated Andre Ward (31-0) is considered by many to be the best pound for pound fighter in boxing, and his win over Kovalev last year went a long way to increasing his legacy. Despite Ward’s amazing talent, many feared for him ahead of that match, as he was going up in weight to meet a huge puncher and powerful boxers like Kovalev. Those fears seemed to be justified as Ward was pummeled and knocked down in the first few rounds, but did brilliantly to recover and win the fight via unanimous decision (albeit highly controversially).

Kovalev (30-1-1, 26 KO) felt robbed in the first meeting against Ward, and for good reason. He did enough in the early rounds to win the fight, but all 3 judges saw it differently, which was very strange to say the least. It was the first loss of Kovalev’s career and based on how the first fight went, he will feel confident of winning the rematch. However, he was clearly second best in the late rounds of the first fight, so that will be a serious reason for worry.

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Ward stands at 183 cm tall and has a reach of 180 cm. Kovalev stands at 183 cm tall and has a reach of 183 cm. Ward needs to go up in weight for this fight, while Kovalev is a natural at Light Heavyweight. Ward is the defensive tactician, a true heir to Floyd Mayweather, while Kovalev is the brute force with a KO punch. It`s a classic contrast in styles.

Kovalev should have won the first fight. You could score that from 114-113 Ward to 116-112 Kovalev (depending who you give the close rounds to), so a judge giving Ward the match 114-113 was not necessarily robbery. However, for all 3 judges to see it that way, that was suspect.

Even though Kovalev was the real winner last November, the way Ward fought was incredibly impressive. Ward could not deal with Kovalev’s power in the early rounds, he got knocked down, and it seemed like the Russian will cruise to victory. However, Ward slowly got back into the match, managing to impose his style, and Kovalev found himself unable to hit him in the later rounds.

It amazing for Ward to come back from the brink like that and turn the tides not only against a more powerful fighter, but against one of the best pound for pound fighters in the world – which Kovalev is.

It was blatantly obvious in the second part of the first fight that Ward had figured out Kovalev, leaving the Russian with no answers or solutions. It was a classic case of the defensive tactician dancing around a more powerful opponent, and I see no reason for which that scenario won`t continue in this rematch.

I believe Kovalev missed his chance to beat Ward last year (or rather it was stolen from him). Ward now knows how to fight against him, he seems to have figured him out and should win this fight.

I expect a slower, more pragmatic bout than the first one, with Ward dominating the tempo just like he did in the second part of the first fight and eventually winning a decision (something like 117-111) – this time, deservingly. My tip is Ward to win and i`ll stake 8 units on the bet.

Pick: Ward
Odds: 1.69 @ Ohmbet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.52
Event date: 18 June