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Juan Martin Del Potro will aim to reach his second ever US Open final, but in order to do so he will need to get past World No.1 Rafa Nadal after defeating Roger Federer in the quarterfinals.
Nadal claimed his easiest win of the tournament in the quarters, as he conceded only 5 games to the 19 year old Andrey Rublev for a 6-1 6-2 6-2 win. After looking a bit unreliable at the start of the tournament (lost sets to Daniel and Mayer), Nadal stepped it up with big wins over Dolgopolov and Rublev and seems to have raised his level for these later stages of the event. However, he has not faced a test comparable to Del Potro so far.
It has been an incredible tournament for Del Potro, who seemed down and out in his Round 16 match against Thiem, where he suffered with a virus. Feverish and barely moving, Del Potro was close to retiring when trailing 1-6 2-6, but somehow found the strength to come back and win that match in 5 sets. He backed it up with a marvelous 4 set win against Federer in the quarterfinals, a match in which Federer didn`t play badly, but Delpo was just too strong and got on top in the important points.
Bet on Nadal vs. Del Potro and claim your 100% (100 Eur) freebet at Ohmbet now!Nadal only has an 8-5 lead in the H2H, and what`s more worrying for him is the fact that he actually trails 4-5 on hard courts. What`s more, Del Potro won the last two meetings, including one last year in Rio, and also won their only Head 2 Head clash at the US Open – a 6-2 6-2 6-2 destruction of Nadal back in 2009, at the same semifinal stage.
Nadal obviously doesn`t have a dominant matchup against Del Potro here, and the Argentinean has the game to take Nadal out of his rhythm – especially here on the US Open hard courts, a surface on which Nadal often looked vulnerable in his career, while for Del Potro this is his favorite event.
Despite Rafa’s convincing wins in the last two rounds, there is not a consensus on his current level of play. The early struggles and the poor level of opposition faced (Rublev and Dolgopolov were really disappointing in the R16 and quarters) do not indicate without a shadow of a doubt that Nadal is unbeatable. He could well be vulnerable against an opponent like Del Potro, as he has been many times in his career on the American hard courts.
If the two players put on stage the same level of tennis they played so far, Juan Martin Del Potro has a real chance to win, and a fair case could be made that he would actually be the favorite.
The problem however is that you just can’t know with Delpo’s fitness. It has been a long while since he played so much tennis in space of two weeks, and he already had that virus in the Round 16 match against Thiem. Plus, he is coming after another grueling clash with Federer, and to beat Fedex and Nadal back to back is a difficult feat to achieve for any player in the world.
All the things in the above paragraph are valid risks for a bet on Del Potro, and they make Nadal the deserving favorite. However, at the current price, I believe these are risks well worth taking, and hopefully the day of rest will work in Delpo’s favor.
I believe Nadal doesn`t deserve to be a 1.35 – 1.40 favorite against an in form Del Potro at the US Open, in a match he could clearly lose. I believe the best bet to take here is Del Potro to win, I think it`s better to go with the best odds and lower stakes, as opposed to betting higher stakes on handicaps or total games – because Delpo could just as well lose this badly if he doesn`t have anything left in the tank.
My tip is Del Potro to win with medium stakes. Prediction: Rafael Nadal – Juan Martin Del Potro 5-7 7-6 6-7 4-6.
Pick: Del Potro
Odds: 3.55 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 12.75
Event date: 8 September
