Borcea – Petrolul

Agricola Borcea will host Petrolul 52 Ploiesti on Tuesday afternoon (European time) in the 4th round of the Romanian Cup, both teams currently competing in the third tier of Romanian football.

Agricola had a successful season last year when they gained promotion from the 4th league and also won the regional cup in their district, but the small club from Borcea doesn`t seem to have what it takes to compete at a superior level this year. Agricola currently has 1 win and 5 losses in their 3rd league series, with the only win coming against last placed Traian, a team which lost all their matches with a 0-31 goal difference.

Petrolul Ploiesti is a club with big tradition in Romania, but they suffered bankruptcy a few years ago and had to start over last year from the fourth league with a slightly different name. Petrolul gained promotion, and now is looking to promote again in order to play second league football next season. The visitors are currently tied for the first place in their Liga 3 series, winning all their 6 matches with a 14-3 goal difference.

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Borcea is a small village with a population of around 8000, they don`t have serious financial backing and even staying in the 3rd league would be a huge achievement, but that`s not looking very likely right now. On the other hand, Petrolul was a big club and the current team has ambitions to reach the top level of football in Romania.

The visitors have a great squad for Liga 3 standards, with many guys which have Liga 1 or Liga 2 experience and are still close to the prime of their careers at ages of around 30-32 years old, or even younger. The most notable players are Bolboasa (ex Viitorul), Arnautu (ex FC Petrolul), Tudor (ex Astra, Iasi), Ciocalteu (ex Brasov), Prunescu (ex Clinceni) and Paun (ex Dinamo, CSKA Sofia). Paun hasn`t featured lately and might not play, even though he`s available.

Petrolul 52`s coach is expected to field the best team here, maybe just a couple of tweaks here and there, especially as Petrolul doesn`t have a game next weekend, so that makes the Cup a priority right now.

Also, a team with Petrolul’s ambitions is unlikely to be involved in a fixed game, something which can be a danger at this level.

Normally I would never bet on such a low level match, the main reason being the lack of information available. However, things are different here, as I was able to gain pretty much every information one could need, and that makes me comfortable to pursue what I think is a value bet – although there`s still the risk of having never watched the two teams play, so that`s why i will keep the stakes reasonable (but 7 units is still a very serious investment).

We are talking about a club that doesn`t seem good enough to compete at a Liga 3 level (Borcea), while Petrolul is a club which is a class above the third tier of football. With the visitors expected to be motivated and field the best lineup, they should win this comfortably. My tip is Petrolul Ploiesti to win. Prediction: Agricola Borcea – Petrolul Ploiesti 0-3.

Pick: Petrolul
Odds: 1.59 @ 1xBet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 4.13
Event date: 3 October