Scotland – Australia

Scotland will look to follow up on their excellent performance against New Zealand with a win against Australia, with the Wallabies coming after a big loss in England.

After struggling to beat Samoa at home in their first November test, Scotland lost by only 5 points last Saturday against New Zealand, mounting a late rally which almost ended with a game tying try in the last minute. It was a very good performance by the shorthanded Scots, who fought like crazy despite missing a high number of important players. The Scots will also take confidence from the fact that they actually beat Australia away from home a few months ago in the Summer, although that was a completely different Australian team which was not ready to play.

The Wallabies have been on a tear in the last few months, finishing second in the Rugby Championship where they only lost to New Zealand (twice, almost winning one of those), following that up with a win against New Zealand in the 3rd Bledisloe Cup test. Australia also started the November tour on fire, claiming convincing wins against Japan and Wales before succumbing to a disappointing 6-30 defeat in England last week. The result was definitely underwhelming and even if Australia did not play as bad as the score suggests, it raised questions about how much did they really improve.

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Team news & lineups:

Scotland continues to struggle with injuries to key players, particularly in the forwards department from 1-5, as they miss a total of about 10 guys. Australia will miss Folau and Coleman yet again, huge absences, particularly the first one. Hanigan is the only new injury for Australia.

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Tommy Seymour, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Alex Dunbar, 11 Sean Maitland, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ali Price, 8 Ryan Wilson, 7 Hamish Watson, 6 John Barclay (c), 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Grant Gilchrist, 3 Simon Berghan, 2 Stuart McInally, 1 Darryl Marfo

Australia: 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Marika Koroibete, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Reece Hodge, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia, 8 Sean McMahon, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 Ben McCalman, 5 Blake Enever, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Scott Sio

Although Scotland played very well and surpassed expectations last weekend against the All Blacks, almost tying the game at the death, they did have some good fortune going their way. In the 60th minute or so New Zealand was leading by 12 and seemed to have a try in the bag on the counter, but Scotland`s last man made a try saving interception, which eventually resulted in a Scottish try and a 14 point swing. New Zealand also suffered two yellow cards in the second half, which facilitated the Scottish comeback.

In a completely opposite scenario, Australia`s 6-30 loss against England did not reflect the power balance at all. Australia suffered two yellow cards and was even reduced to 13 men at one point. Still they were only trailing by 3 points in the 50th minute and arguably looked the better side before England’s bench eventually made the difference in rainy weather – which was another disadvantage for Australia, as their game is not suited for rain, and they made a number of errors in try scoring positions.

The results these two teams claimed last week in very special circumstances, and which did not reflect what really happened in those games, make Australia a tad underrated by the general public here. Fact is they played better last week than the result suggests, while Scotland was not as solid as their own result suggests.

The bookies knew what they were doing when they opened with Australia as a 1.35 odds favorite, but the public pushed the odds higher, mostly on the (wrong) impression created by last week`s results.

With all of Scotland’s undeniable improvement, the Wallabies are the better team here, and they will look to avenge that home loss against Scotland in the Summer, although that wasn`t a very relevant matchup considering how poor and different Australia was at that point (they almost lost to Italy as well). Also, the Scots were healthier back then.

A problem for Australia could be the fact that this will be their 4th test in 4 weeks, and it comes after a long season, so fatigue will be a question. However, Scotland might have even bigger problems after putting in a huge effort last week against New Zealand.

With a shorthanded lineup, the Scots fought their hearts out against the All Blacks and that is sure to leave big scars just one week later. They could only afford to make 4 changes to last week`s lineup, as their bench is decimated by the injuries.

The absences to key players and last week’s huge effort are very important things to take into account, and might be too much for Scotland to overcome – particularly against a superior, in form Wallabies team which will be desperate to bounce back after the loss in England.

Rain is not expected come game time, which won`t be a difference maker, as both teams play expansive rugby and function better in the dry.

The Scots just don`t seem to have enough strength and depth to play at their best in two consecutive weekends against Scotland and Australia, so the Wallabies should take advantage here, even without Folau. My tip is Australia to win and I will invest maximum stakes of 10 units on this bet. Prediction: Scotland – Australia 18 – 27.

Pick: Australia
Odds: 1.57
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 5.70
Event date: 25 November