Italy – South Africa

South Africa will be out for revenge in Padova, after suffering one of their most humiliating losses ever at the same time last year against Italy.

Italy`s 20-18 win against South Africa last year was one of the proudest moments in Azzurri rugby history, but it was a singular result in a sea of mediocrity for the Italians. The Azzurri are struggling for some time now, being the run of the litter in the Six Nations, and this year the poor results continued. In the two tests played in November, both at home, Italy claimed a solid 19-10 win over Fiji (though Fiji had a stinker), then went on to get badly beaten by Argentina 15-31 last weekend.

South Africa has clearly improved compared to last year, which was a complete disaster. Although the Boks showed inconsistency throughout 2017, they have generally been solid. Still, the inconsistency was present in the November tests as well, with the Springboks losing the first one by 35 points (!!) in Ireland, only to bounce back with a solid 18-17 win over France in Paris last round – being unlucky not to win by more.

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Team news & lineups:

Italy decided to change just two players from last week`s starting XV. The Boks will make a few changes to the lineup that beat France, but nothing major, with the exception of Malcolm Marx – who is a big loss.

Italy: 15 Jayden Hayward, 14 Angelo Esposito, 13 Tommaso Boni, 12 Tommaso Castello, 11 Mattia Bellini, 10 Carlo Canna, 9 Marcello Violi, 8 Sergio Parisse (c), 7 Abraham Steyn, 6 Giovanni Licata, 5 Dean Budd, 4 Marco Fuser, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Luca Bigi, 1 Andrea Lovotti

South Africa: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Dillyn Leyds, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Francois Venter, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Ross Cronje, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth (c), 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Tendai Mtawarira

South Africa played very well last Saturday in France. Even if they only won by 1 point, the Boks were always in control, and only Pollard’s horrible day from the tee stopped them from winning by 10+ points. Pollard missed 11 very easy points (8 of them should have been automatic makes at this level), and his bad day forced South Africa to avoid kicking two other very makeable penalties – so those were 11-17 points left on the table.

They will now face an Italian side which was beaten 15-31 by Argentina last week – an Argentina side which lost in the Rugby Championship to South Africa by 18 and 22 points. Of course, such calculations are superficial, but they do suggest the difference between Italy and South Africa a the moment.

It could rain at game time, so that might work against the Springboks, who are expected to play the more expansive brand of rugby. However, they are still a physical side, so it shouldn`t hurt them too much, and Italy will be hurt as well – as they are already having problems scoring, they don`t need the weather to pose an extra challenge.

I expect South Africa to show superior quality here, and you would also expect Pollard to have a good kicking day after he was disastrous against France. A kicker of his caliber is unlikely to have two stinkers in a row, so he might help South Africa to put extra points on the board from both easy and difficult positions. A good kicking day from Pollard, which I expect him to have, would be vital in the Boks covering the point spread.

Look for the South Africans to treat this game with maximum focus after what happened in Italy last year. That was a total fluke and South Africa was in a worse state back then. This time, the Boks should have way too much for this poor Italian side, they should keep their noses in front throughout the game and let their superior bench finish the job.

My tip is South Africa to cover the 13.5 point handicap. The line is pretty high, as I was hoping for something closer to 10, but it`s still well into the visitors’ reach. Prediction: Italy – South Africa 11 – 31.

Pick: South Africa -13,5
Odds: 1.93 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.44
Event date: 25 November