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Burnley will host Arsenal in the 13th round of the Premier League, with the two teams being currently tied in points for the 6th place in the standings.
Burnley is having a hell of a season so far, with long standing manager Sean Dyche transforming them into one of the best defensive outings in the Premier League. Burnley has allowed just 9 goals in 12 Premier League outings and is currently riding a streak of three consecutive wins, all of them to nil. The hosts also played well against the big teams, beating Chelsea, while also drawing with Tottenham and Liverpool (all on the road).
Arsenal will be confident after a bounce back win in North London derby last round, when they dominated Tottenham for a deserved 2-0 victory. That will give the Gunner a lot of morale, even thought hey lost in Koln on Thursday – but that was a meaningless Europa League game, and none of the guys who played there will be in the first eleven today.
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Burnley will be without Heaton and Walters, while Marney is a doubt. Arsenal is healthier than ever, their only injury being Cazorla, who is out since last year. Walcott is also a doubt, but he wasn`t expected to play anyway.
Burnley: Pope – Lowton, Mee, Tarkowski, Ward – Gudmundsson, Defour, Cork, Brady – Hendrick – Barnes
Arsenal: Cech – Mustafi, Koscielny, Monreal – Bellerin, Xhaka, Ramsey, Kolasinac – Ozil, Sanchez – Lacazette
While Arsenal did struggle defensively this season and was sometimes involved in high scoring games, you have to feel that odds on goals are not in check with reality here.
Burnley has a goal difference of 12-9 in twelve Premier League matches, and a goal difference of 5-2 in six home games. They will obviously park the bus in this clash, and proved that they can do that very effectively.
Arsenal’s offense is obviously very strong, but it has misfired plenty of times this season, and Arsenal actually scored just 7 goals in the 6 away games they played so far in the BPL. The Gunners might have a tough time against this in form, very well organized Burnley side.
Odds for under 2.5 goals are as high as 2.25, and you can even get the under 3 (asian) goals at a very competitive price if you like safety first, like I usually do.
I think Burnley has what it takes to frustrate a good but unconvincing Arsenal side here, and I see no reason to expect a goalfest. Look for a clash in which the hosts will defend effectively, while Arsenal will pass the ball around trying to break them down.
My tip is under 3 goals to be scored. Burnley failing to score would go a long way in helping this bet, and that could very well happen given their offensive futility and the fact that Arsenal finally has their regular back three healthy.
Last season Arsenal won a borefest at this ground with the winning 1-0 goal scored in injury time, and I wouldn`t be surprised if a similar result repeats itself. Prediction: Burnley – Arsenal 0-1.
Pick: under 3 goals
Odds: 1.70 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.60
Event date: 26 November
