South Africa – Australia

Porth Elizabeth will host the meeting between South Africa and Australia, as the Springboks take on the Wallabies at the Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium in the 4th round of the Rugby Championship. The hosts still have slim chances to claim the title, while Australia is trying to finish as high as second.

South Africa had high hopes after Allister Coetzee was replaced as manager with Rassie Erasmus early this year. They had a very good test series against England in June and started the 2018 Rugby Championship with a solid 13 point win against Argentina. Then came ugly losses against Argentina (by 13) and Australia (by 5). But the big news, of course, is that in the previous round South Africa managed to defeat the mighty All Blacks right on their turf, in Wellington, 36-34. It was a marvelous win which still holds the headlines ahead of this match.

Australia’s Rugby Championship has been disastrous so far in terms of results, with just 1 win and 3 losses. The Wallabies lost the first two games against New Zealand by 25 and 28 points (although they didn`t play badly), before defeating South Africa at home by 3 points. The big blow for the Wallabies came in the previous round, when they were beaten 19-23 by Argentina at home. It was a historic loss and no doubt a humiliating result, although yet again the Wallabies can claim they were unlucky, because they should have won that game easily.

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Team news & lineups:

South Africa will make 4 changes to the lineup that beat New Zealand, one due to injury. Australia will also make 4 changes to the previous lineup. Tui and Samu are unavailable, but most importantly Folau, Pocock and Hooper are finally at 100% for the Wallabies.

South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 André Esterhuizen, 11 Aphiwe Dyantyi, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Tendai Mtawarira

Australia: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty, 14 Israel Folau, 13 Reece Hodge, 12 Matt Toomua, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Kurtley Beale, 9 Will Genia, 8 David Pocock, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 Ned Hanigan, 5 Izack Rodda, 4 Adam Coleman, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Scott Sio

There is a very clear trend surrounding this game. South Africa is overrated after their huge win against New Zealand, while Australia is underrated after their defeat against Argentina. Those were two perfect storms which have nothing to do with the game in hand on Saturday, and this might be something bettors can capitalize on.

It is definitely not fair to judge these two sides after a single game, especially considering how mercurial and unpredictable South Africa have been recently, and also how unlucky Australia were in this Rugby Championship. The Wallabies definitely did not play as bad as results suggest, and they deserved better.

These two sides are at a pretty similar level right now and two results in the previous round don`t suddenly make South Africa that much of a better team than Australia.

This should be a tight game, as recent meetings between the Boks and the Wallabies have always been. All the last 6 meetings have been decided by 8 points or less.

It must be remembered that less than a month ago Australia beat the Boks at home by 5, with Australia missing its best two players, Pocock and Folau – both of which will start in this one.

It`s also worth taking into account that South Africa will have next week`s massive home game against New Zealand in mind, while Australia will play in Argentina. Obviously both teams will treat this game will full respect and focus, as it is always the case in rugby, but South Africa could give a few more minutes of rest to their key guys.

Look for the Australians to use their vastly superior kicking game to keep the game close and around midfield, maybe with a couple of breakaway tries, while South Africa will need to grind out meters by hand against the Wallabies defense.

All in all this should be a competitive game and South Africa being a 9 point favorite is just not realistic. If last round`s results would have gone differently, the line could have well been only at 3-4 points here. My tip will be Australia to cover the +8,5 handicap. The line is currently moving down towards 7 points and personally I expect it to settle around 7.5 points, so I am taking this bet early. This is a personal opinion, of course, as I can`t always predict with 100% certainty how the odds will move. Prediction: South Africa – Australia 25 – 22.

Pick: Australia +8,5
Odds: 1.85 @ Unibet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.65
Event date: 29 September