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Huge game tonight in San Francisco, as the Golden State Warriors will host the Memphis Grizzlies to determine who will secure the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. The two teams met a few nights ago to determine their seeding in the play-in tournament (Warriors won), but here they are again, this time in an all or nothing clash.
The Warriors (39-33, 25-11 home) finished the regular season on a six game winning streak and 8 wins in their last 9 matches. They really clicked at the right time, and Steph Curry has played like the best player in the world to help them reach the play in tournament. The Warriors lost their first chance to grab a playoff spot a couple of nights ago in an 100-103 loss against the Lakers. However, it was a tremendous game against one of the best teams in the league, and if anything, that loss only confirmed that the Dubs are in great shape right now.
Memphis (38-34, 20-16 away) managed to get past the Spurs on Wednesday in order to reach this winner take all game. The Grizzlies have played well to end the season, but they did not impress in the win against the Spurs. It was a hard fought victory, and if the Spurs didn’t have an atrocious shooting night (particularly DeRozan), the Grizzlies would have been eliminated at home by an average team.
Injury report: Nothing new to report. The Warriors still without Klay, Wiseman, Lee and Oubre. The Grizzlies are at full strength with the exception of Sean McDermott, who isn’t a big part of the rotation anyway.
I backed the Warriors when these two teams met a few nights ago, and there’s no reason to do anything different this time around. Golden State was dominant for most of that game with the exception of the first part of the 4th quarter, when Memphis made a run, but Golden State quickly got back ahead (it’s true that Brooks fouling out for Memphis helped).
The Dubs have Steph Curry and he is on fire, which makes them the better team overall. They have much more experience in games like these, which matters a ton. With home court advantage (Dubs have been great at home all season), with the best player on the floor and with the experience edge, you generally do not lose deciding games in the NBA.
The one thing which worries me a bit is that the Warriors really gave it their all in the loss against LA, it was an exhausting game both physically and mentally. But I think the day of rest will help, playing at home will also help, and the Grizzlies had to work hard themselves on Wednesday, so it’s not like they had any more rest.
I’m going to go with max stakes here. The Warriors beat Memphis earlier this week and should do it again. Anything can happen in sports, that’s a given, but I’d be extremely surprised if Golden State misses out on the playoffs considering how well they are playing and all the things they have going for them. Prediction: Golden State Warriors – Memphis Grizzlies 117 – 100.
Pick: Warriors
Odds: 1.53 @ Betfair Sportsbook
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 5.30
Event date: 22 May
