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Champions League Group B will be decided by the slimmest of margins in the last two rounds, with Juventus, Copenhagen and Galatasaray being separated by just 1 point. Real Madrid is way ahead with 10 points. Juventus will accept nothing less than a win today in Torino, while the visitors will hope to get a draw or an unlikely win. Copenhagen held Juventus to a 1-1 home draw earlier in the group.
Juve has just regained the top spot in the Serie A and they are pumping on all cylinders at the moment. The hosts are in great form, winning 5 of their last 6 matches, the only “hiccup” being a draw against Real Madrid. However, the italian side has been largely disappointing in the Champions League, being on the last place in the group with 3 points in 4 games and not a single win.
Many (myself included) were expecting Copenhagen to be no more than a sparring partner for the top teams in this group, especially since the danish sides started the domestic league in horrible fashion and does not have the same players like in the past few years. Despite this, Copenhagen has played some great football so far in the Champions league and have 4 points to show for at the moment. They also picked things up in the Danish league and they are in very good form overall, with 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches in all competitions. On the other hand, they failed to do any damage away from home in Champions League, losing 4-0 to Real and 3-1 to Galatasaray.
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Team news & lineups
Giovinco and Barzagli are questionable for Juventus, while Lichtsteiner, Pepe and Isla are unavailable. FC Copenhagen has no injuries or suspensions and will field the best possible first eleven.
Juventus: Buffon – Caceres, Vidal, Chiellini – De Ceglie, Pogba, Pirlo, Marchisio, Asamoah – Tevez, Llorente
FC Copenhagen: Wiland – Jacobsen, Bengtsson, Mellberg, Sigurdsson – De Souza, Delaney, Gislason, Vetokele – Braaten, Jorgensen
Juventus is playing good football at the moment, but the Serie A is not what it used to be, and this is obvious looking at the results of italian teams in Champions League. I do not feel it is just to price Juventus as a 2 goal favorite against this resilient Copenhagen side. The visitors proved they can compete at this level, they have great motivation for this one, they are in good form and they have a clean bill of health, which is very important. Juve had a really tough time in Denmark, today home court advantage should make it easier for them to get a win, but to win by 3 or more goals is a little bit of a stretch – especially as Juve is not the type of team to cover big handicaps. The hosts won by 3 or more goals only four times this season (vs. Lazio twice, Catania and Napoli). Expect a spirited performance from the danish side and in the end they should cover the 2 goal handicap. Juventus is not a european powerhorse and Copenhagen is a decent Champions League side. My pick is Juventus – FC Copenhagen 3-1.
Pick: FC Copenhagen (+2,5)
Odds: 1.77 @ Sbobet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.39
Event date: 27 November
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