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Rubin only needs a draw to qualify, and a point would be enough for them to also top the group. Maribor is dead last in group D with 3 points, but just 2 points away from 2nd placed Wigan, so the slovenians will hope to get a result here to boost their qualification chances. Rubin defeated Maribor 5-2 on the road when these two previously met.
Rubin has been utterly dominant in this group, only dropping 2 points in a 1-1 draw at Wigan. They have an amazing squad and are clearly one level above the opposition. However, they have been extremely disappointing in the domestic competition, where they sit on the 10th place after 17 rounds, despite being expected to challenge for the title. Rubin did improve a little bit lately, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in the last 4 matches, but they still have a lot to do in order to reach the level that they are capable of.
Maribor is without a doubt the weakest team in this group, I watched a lot of their european games this season and they were simply outplayed in all of them. They got incredibly lucky to knock out APOEL in the Champions League qualies, than they were clearly defeated by Plzen and were sent to the Europa League group stage. If it were not for the fluke win at Zulte Waregem, Maribor would have no points to show for in this group. The squad quality is very poor, one example would be Maribor`s main striker (Mendy), an amateur turned professional at 19 years old who was a reserve for the second team of Dinamo Bucharest a couple of years ago. Maribor is first in the league, 2 points above the second place with a game in hand, but the level in Slovenia is extremely poor.
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Team news: Rondon, Karadeniz and Navas are out for Rubin. The hosts will field a competitive team, stating that they want the win. Maribor will miss their main scoring threat, Mendy, and even worse, captain Tavares is doubtful. He is the best player in the team by far, the only difference maker. If he will miss alongside Mendy, Maribor will be unlikely to score – which would be a disaster for them, since their defense is extremely poor.
Cold weather and precipitations are expected in Russia at game-time, but the pitch will be in perfect condition. This favors Rubin, as they will be able to play their game on a good turf, while also benefiting from the weather conditions. Like most teams, Maribor will have a tough time playing on the road, in the russian winter.
Rubin has struggled in the domestic competition by they have showed an entirely different quality of football in Europe. Despite them not needing the win, Rubin players and coach insisted that they will go for the three points and I expect them to record an easy win over Maribor. The difference between the two teams is huge, Rubin is at least one level above their opponents, as seen in the first leg when Rubin dismantled the slovenians on the road, 5-2. The odds are great and 1.45 on Rubin seems to be almost a gift after what these two sides showed in the group stages. I will go with the -1,25 asian handicap for even more value, Rubin can cover a 2 goal handicap at home, in these weather conditions, against this poor Maribor side. They will look to win as big as possible in order to boost their confidence and get back on track in the Russian Premier League. My pick is Rubin Kazan – Maribor 3-0. The odds are dropping fast on this bet.
Pick: Rubin Kazan (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.07 @ 10Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.56
Event date: 28 November
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 1 for 2 in picks involving Maribor this season
