Boreham – Sutton

Boreham Wood will try to climb out of the relegation zone with a win today, but playoff hopefuls Sutton United have the upper hand coming into this one, at least on paper.

Boreham has struggled a lot so far, posting some abysmal statistics with 3 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses to their name. Home court advantage wasn`t much help for them, winning only once and losing 3 times in 7 games. The team is also in very bad form with 2 draws and 2 losses in the last 4 league games, but the good news for Boreham is that there are a number of poor teams in the Conference South this season, so they could potentially avoid the drop despite their weak display and quality. However, Boreham still is a favorite to go doen and needles to say, the home side would love the three points here. They would get out of the relegation zone for the moment with the three points. Boreham is on the back of a 2-2 away draw with Bath City.

Sutton made some important signings over the summer and the visitors are widely expected to get promoted, at least via the playoffs, having one of the best squads in the league. Sutton is currently 5th, but a win over lowly Boreham would see them climb up to the third place. The visitors managed to get out of a bad patch of form with a 3-2 home win over Maidenhead United last round. A particular highlight for Sutton so far was their excellent offense, the 3rd best in the league with 29 goals scored in 16 matches.

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Normally the away win would seem to be the obvious choice here, but Sutton did not play too well lately and the odds are a little bit short for my taste, as after all Boreham has home court advantage. Also, Boreham defeated Sutton 3-0 last season at home. The highest chance for a winning bet is represented by the over 2.5 goals line. Sutton is excellent up front and will be eager to get a win which would mean a lot in the standings. It`s hard to see the promotion favorites not getting a couple of goals against this poor Boreham side. On the other hand, Boreham Wood will have some spaces to exploit on counters and they will probably be able to score at least once themselves, as they are decent up front. Their goal statistics are 19 scored and 24 conceded in 16 rounds and manager Ian Allinson stated that he wants his team to be more sharp in front of goal, scoring even more, so that is definetely good news in perspective of a bet on goals.

In both teams’ matches an average of ~2.7 goals per contest is scored, and looking at the H2H record we can see that all the three direct meetings from 2012 onwards had 3 goals to show for (2-1, 3-0, 2-1), with each team winning at home. With no big squad problems for either team prior to this meeting, I can see this one easily going over the 2.5 goal line. Two out of Boreham`s last three games saw a 2-2 result, and this could happen again today. Both sides will be looking for the three points and that all but rules out a rugged, cautious encounter, especially since Boreham and Sutton are traditionally attacking teams playing at a low level of football, where goals are easier to create.

My pick is Boreham Wood – Sutton United 2-2 and I am pretty confident in this tip, so personally I will invest (and recommend) a solid 8 units on it.

Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.90 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.20
Event date: 9 December

Editor Facts

• Rostick won 7 out of his 10 betting tips in December