Thunder @ Nuggets

The in-form Nuggets are underdogs at home against the injury-hit Oklahoma City Thunder, but the hosts will surely feel confident of their chances to record a surprise win.

After losing Iguodala (trade) and Gallinari (injury) for the start of this season, it was obvious that the Nuggets will struggle a little bit. However, they are well within the Western Conference playoff race at the moment with a 17-17 win-loss record (9-8) at home. Denver still has a very solid team and they are extremely well coached by Brian Shaw. The Nuggets are on the back of a three game winning streak, averaging an incredible 125.6 points per game during the streak. The hosts are one of the best home teams in the NBA (despite this seasons’ home record not being so impressive), not surprising considering the altitude in Denver and their run&gun style – two factors that will always make opponents uncomfortable.

With Westbrook out due to a knee injury, Oklahoma City (27-8, 12-5 away)  has suffered another blow before the last game with Serge Ibaka being sidelined because of flu-like symptoms. This resulted in an ugly loss against one of the worst teams in the NBA, the Utah Jazz. OKC already proved last season that they are not a top team without Westbrook and without their rim protector Ibaka I doubt they are even a playoff side. The spaniard is doubtful for this game, but even if he plays, he will only get limited minutes.

Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle.

Surely OKC is a better team than Denver, but not without Westbrook and Ibaka. Thunder`s defense was horrible against the Jazz without their main big-man, and if he misses again today, God help OKC against the hottest offense in the league. You have to feel that Denver have a serious match-up advantage, especially considering that they also have a fantastic frontcourt – big, deep and athletic.

Things are clear here. It all comes down to Ibaka – if he doesn`t play, Denver will most likely win this and maybe even by a big margin. But, even if he plays, the hosts are still value for their money at these odds, as they clearly have about 50% chances to beat a Westbrook-less Oklahoma City at home, also considering their current form. Expect the hosts to dominate under the paint (with Ibaka limited even if he plays) and frustrate OKC with their run & gun game. I was pretty confident that this match-up also has very good trading value for the betting exchange fans, but at the moment odds on Denver are rising. However, I am guessing the trend will be reversed sooner rather than later, especially with the uncertainty about Ibaka, so you should be able to sell the bet game-time at very good odds. But I`m not counting on this here and for non-trading fans, this is an obvious value bet with solid chances to be a winner. With all the factors put together, I am rating Denver as the favorite in this encounter. The handicap would take away value, so I`m going with Nuggets to win at excellent odds. My pick would be something like OKC Thunder @ Denver Nuggets 100 – 110.

I was initially planning stakes worth 7 units on this bet, but after further contemplation I decided I will go with 8 since the odds are just too good to ignore.

Pick: Denver Nuggets to win
Odds: 2.30 @ Bwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 10.4
Event date: 10 January

Editor Facts

• Rostick’s last 15 tips saw 10 won, 1 void and 4 lost