Fiorentina – Siena

Fiorentina and Siena will feel they have a good draw for the final with Udinese waiting the winner in the semis. The Firenze side is of course the big favorite to advance versus Serie B side Siena, also considering that Fiorentina plays at home.

Fiorentina is having a great season, no doubt. Fourth place in Serie A, 6 wins and a draw in last 7 games all-around, great scoring ability. Fiorentina will miss again their regular strikers and best players, Rossi and Gomez, but they played good without them lately and they also kept their goal scoring power. Fiorentina has 37 goals in 20 games in Serie A. For this game Montella will probably use some squad rotation but for sure will not play with the reserves. As far as team news are concerned, Ambrosini, Tomovic, Gomez, Rossi are out, loan-signing Matri also won`t play. New signing Anderson from Man United will probably start. Hard to predict the exact first 11 but the possible lineup might look like this:

Fiorentina: Neto – Roncaglia, Rodriguez, Compper Pasqual – Anderson, Aquilani – Joaquin, Ilicic, Rebic – Ryder Matos

Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle.

Siena got past Bologna and Catania so far in the cup. Important wins vs. Serie A teams but of course those are not at the level of Fiorentina. Siena is struggling in the Serie B right now – they are on 14th place and just 6 points above the relegation zone. They should be safe in the end but they are having a poor season. The good news for Siena is that they did not lose in the last 5 games, but also the last to Serie B games were only draws. Siena plays an attractive brand of football and can score a lot of goals, so they won’t come in Firenze to park the bus. Team news: Grillo and D’Agostino are out. Probably very little squad rotation for Siena today, probable lineup could look like this:

Siena: Lamanna – Angelo, Matheu, Dellafiore, Feddal – Valiani, Giacomazzi, Vergassola, Pulzetti – Rosina – Paolucci

Siena does not lose often on the road (2-7-1 record in Serie B and a 9 match undefeated run away) but Fiorentina is a different caliber of opponent. Fiorentina will be happy to host a team that plays open football so they can showcase their attacking abilities (even w/o Rossi and Gomez). With Milan out, the road to the final is open and Firenze will be very motivated today, Montella might decide in the end to send the best team and not rest anyone, but even with a few substitutes the quality gap is just too big. Fiorentina plays at home, is motivated, in form and has proved time after time they can score and cover handicaps. Siena is a decent Serie B side, hard to beat, but vulnerable against higher class opponents. My pick for this match is Fiorentina to win by 1 goal handicap. Fiorentina – Siena 3-1. Over 2,5 bet also looks very good but myself, I don’t like the odds around 1.65.

Pick: Fiorentina (-1,5)
Odds: 1.85 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.8
Event date: 23 January

Editor Facts

• Ocean has a yield of 24.9% in January (4w – 2l – 1v in tips)