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The second Australian Open semifinal turned out to be one of the most anticipated matches in years in tennis, with the biggest rivalry in the sport (the “Fedal”) set for its 33rd episode here in the Melbourne night.
Rafa Nadal had an absolutely amazing season last year coming from the knee injury, regaining the no.1 spot in the rankings and putting together a mind-blowing run of 30 consecutive hard court wins, a surface which has always been his least favorite. His form dipped a little bit late in the year, but he still reached the final at the ATP Wourld Tour Finals, losing to Djokovic but defeating Federer in the semifinals. Nadal started this season strong with a title at Doha and playing his best tennis in the first three rounds at the Australian Open (def. Tomic – retired, Kokkinakis and Monfils). The 6-1 6-2 6-3 win against in-form Monfils was arguably the best performance by a player in this tournament. However, Nadal has decreased his level in the 4th round and in the quarters, a highly unusual thing for a top player. He had big problems against Nishikori, and only the japanese`s poor mindset allowed Nadal to win 3-0. He went on to win 3-1 against Dimitrov in the quarters but Rafa played really poor with very bad serving and a lot of unforced errors – he could have been easily pushed in 5 sets or even defeated, but his experience helped him get trough. The dip in form can be attributed to a bad left hand injury Rafa suffered, who is giving him a hard time in terms of both pain and comfort.
After his worst season in a decade, Roger Federer has suddenly (and unexpectedly) exploded here in Melbourne. Despite having a horrible draw, he cruised to the semifinals, defeating Duckworth, Kavcic, Gabashvilli, Tsonga and Murray. He lost a single set against the Brit, only because of some hiccups when he served for the match in the 3rd. Roger did show signs of improvement and ability to challenge the top guys late last season, but losing to Hewitt in the Brisbane final was worrying. Turns out that the swiss is back on the right track after all, and is playing some of his best tennis in years right now. His serve, one of the keys to his game, has been fantastic, Federrer allowing just 2 breaks of serve so far.
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The H2H is 22-10 for Nadal, and in this case the H2H speakes volumes. The matchup here is just horrific for Federer, he can rarely trouble Nadal (especially of late) and one must think long and hard before going against Rafa in the “Fedal”. Nadal won the last 4 meetings, losing a single set (all last year, three of them on hard). Also, Nadal won their last meeting in a Grand Slam, two years ago in the semifinals here at the Australian Open – in a similar situation, with Roger in form, but Rafa was also playing better. There is good news for Federer however, as right now he is playing exactly the brand of tennis with which he can defeat Rafa: the serve is working at 100%, he`s moving at his best and he is aggressive. The chance of the racket could also help him against Nadal`s top spin.
The X-Factor here will be Rafa`s hand injury. The spaniard was clearly troubled by the wound in his left hand, and his performances against Dimitrov and Nishikori were far from his best tennis. Of course, he has the best medical care available, as he even flew in a doctor from Spain after the Dimitrov game to help him recover, but it is hard to think the wound can be healed so fast. You could see that from the Nishikori match to the Dimitrov match it only got worse.
There`s no doubt that Federer is playing the better tennis right now, he`s the in-form player in this clash and the best choice looks to be a bet on his win. However, he needs to keep up the level of play if he wants to win this, and he can`t afford hiccups like in the 3rd set against Murray. It`s important not to forget that Andy was not at 100% after the back surgery. It will be hard for Roger to get over the matchup problems, but with his form, his serve working brilliant and his aggressive approach, he has the proper gameplan and form to defeat the spaniard. Rafa`s hand injury is a big question mark. Of course, Nadal is a fighter and you can`t rule out his will and motivation, but overall it is hard to believe that he will be able to play his best. That injury just can`t heal that fast, and if he comes up with the same performance like against Dimitrov he has absolutely no chance here.
All in all, great value in the odds on the swiss. I will pick Federer to win, expecting him to be offensive again and play the kind of aggressive match that works for him against Nadal. And, though I`m not counting on it, I also expect Rafa to not be at his best with that left hand. After giving this a 2 day thought and analyzing it thoroughly, there is no doubt in my mind that Federer is the favorite and deserves a maximum stakes bet at these odds – not undermining the huge advantage the H2H and matchup gives Nadal. My prediction would be something like 7-6 3-6 7-6 6-4, a 4 set win for Roger. The odds are going down.
Pick: Roger Federer
Odds: 2.41 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 14.10
Event date: 24 January
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 4 for 7 in Australian Open tips
