Ireland – Wales

Ireland and Wales both got off to winning starts at home last week in the Six Nations, but boy were their performances different. While Ireland cruised to beat Scotland 28-6, Wales was largely disappointing coming out with a rugged 23-15 win against Italy.

Ireland has a great team right now, finally bringing in quality youngsters to slowly replace the fantastic (but underachieving) generation of O’Driscoll, O’Connell or O’Gara. While the first two are still key pieces in Ireland`s setup, most of the older guys are gone, as well as heavily criticized coach Declan Kidney. The hosts have a great mix of youth and experience at the moment and are very well coached by Josef Schmidt, so they could really make a run for the Six Nations title this year after a very disappointing campaign last year. Ireland was very solid against Scotland, especially on the defensive end, and their performance was not surprising considering the good showing they had in the November friendlies.

Wales is trying to achieve a historic Six Nations hattrick, as the visitors won the competition in 2012 and 2013. Wales has a brilliant generation that is at the peak of its form, but somehow they managed to play a really ugly game against Italy in the first round, showing very little offensive potency, with no flow to their game and poor ball handling. However, their sheer quality and the good showing in the November friendlies should make punters expect a better showing from the visitors at the Aviva Stadium.

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Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Brian O’Driscoll, 12 Gordon D’Arcy, 11 Dave Kearney, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Chris Henry, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Paul O’Connell (c), 4 Devin Toner, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy.

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Scott Williams, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 George North, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton, 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun-Wyn Jones (c), 4 Andrew Coombs, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Richard Hibbard, 1 Gethin Jenkins.

The rivalry between these two has never been bigger, with Ireland star O’Driscoll at war with the Wales coach and Wales handing Ireland a number of heartbreaking defeats since 2011 onwards – after Ireland won the Grand Slam with a last minute O’Gara drop goal against Wales in 2009. However, despite the visitors dominating the matchup since 2011, in the last meeting (last years` Six Nations) Ireland managed to escape with a 30-22 win in Cardiff after almost losing an early 20 point advantage.

Wales might be the slightly better team, just slightly, but Ireland plays at home and looks to be in better form. I`d say Ireland wins this by 1-12 points at some tasty 2.30 odds, but honestly this welsh team is so good that it scares me off this bet. I find the under to be a much better choice, despite the points total being very low at 36,5 points.

The fact is that both sides looked to be much better defensively in the first match and did not impress on the offensive end. Ireland never really gave Scotland a chance to score a try, but couldn`t score more than 28 points themselves despite Scotland putting on a really poor defensive effort. I reckon the hosts will find it much tougher to create something against Wales. The visitors are at a totally different level than Scotland and had an amazing 94% tackle success rate against Italy, so they`re pretty much an immovable object. I can`t see how Ireland could get much possession in the welsh 22, but that`s also valid for the visitors themselves looking at how Ireland defended last week. O’Connell will be back for the hosts, so that should make them even more impenetrable. Expect few try chances here, as the game should mostly be played in the midfield area.

This match is absolutely huge with all the rivalry, the pre-game scandals and recent meetings, plus it has the potential to even decide the Six Nations champions this year. Expect a very tense affair in these circumstances, with the winning side being decided by the slimmest of margins. The forward battle should be titanic with two of the best front rows in Rugby clashing, so we`ll see a lot of scrums, wasted time and lengthly attacks with slow field advancement. Both sides are specialists in the set piece game so penalties will be the main scoring method. I don`t expect more than 2-3 tries here. My tip is under 36,5 points at odds 1.90. Prediction: Ireland to get the win with a late penalty. Ireland – Wales 16-15.

Pick: under 36,5 points
Odds: 1.90 @ Unibet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.1
Event date: 8 February