Hewitt – Baghdatis

Lleyton Hewitt and Marcos Baghdatis will square off in the most anticipated clash of the ATP Memphis second round. The tournament is played on indoor hard courts.

Hewitt started this season playing his best tennis in years, capturing the Brisbane title after a massive run which included defeating Kei Nishikori in the semis and Roger Federer in the final. However, Lleyton couldn`t mantain his form and lost the next 2 matches (vs. Seppi, 2-3 and vs. Tsonga, 0-3). Nevertheless, he still played decent tennis. Hewitt had a bye in the first round at Memphis so this is his first match in the tournament. The australian always felt good in the February US indoor hard court season and here at Memphis he has a quarterfinal and a semifinal in the last 5 years.

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Baghdatis is far away from his best right now, as injuries and poor form have sent him out of the Top 100. The cypriot is now on the 134th spot in the ATP rankings, trying to move up, but his performances are not encouraging. After finishing last season in horrible form, Baghdatis did not show signs of improvement, losing 3 out of 3 matches in 2014 prior to Memphis. The opposition was far from scary, with Johnson, Istomin and Krstin being Baghdatis` victors. The loss against the 373rd ranked Krstin last week at Zagreb was particularly shoking. Here at Memphis the cypriot got a wildcard and did well to defeat qualifier Rajeev Ram in 2 sets.

The H2H between these two is 2-2, but they haven`t played eachother since 2010. Hewitt leads the H2H on hard courts 2-1. Normally there`s not a matchup advantage for either player, but Hewitt`s excellent defense can frustrate Baghdatis when Marcos is not in form.

The odds on Hewitt to win are dropping fast and this trend seems perfectly normal to me. The australian is in very good form and, for the first time in years, he looks perfectly healthy and fit. He`s serving well, moving like he`s 5 years younger and, like always, makes very few unforced errors. Baghdatis on the other hand is in the worst moment of his career, he looks out of shape physically, he makes a ton of unforced errors and his confidence must be pretty low. I can see Hewitt keeping the ball in play and forcing his opponent to make a high number of errors. Baghdatis conceded 5 break points to a very poor returner, Ram, so I can`t see him having any kind of security on his serve against one of the best returners in the game, Hewitt. The 2,5 games handicap line seems pretty reasonable and I will take Lleyton to cover. My tip is Hewitt -2,5 handicap and I also reckon the australian will take this in 2 sets, but the bet could be also won in three. Prediction: Lleyton Hewitt – Marcos Baghdatis 6-4 6-3.

Pick: Hewitt (-2,5)
Odds: 1.83 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.64
Event date: 14 February