Villarreal – Celta Vigo

Villarreal is heavily favored by the bookies to defeat Celta Vigo with odds around 1.50, and for good reason. But Celta is playing good football right now and will hope to produce an upset.

Villarreal is 4 points away from the last Champions league spot in La Liga, held by Bilbao, so a win is of massive importance for the hosts against Celta. The hosts are in shaky form right now, alternating wins with losses in the last 6 rounds, but they did win their last 3 home games in La Liga with goals to spare: 5-1, 2-0, 3-1. Villarreal is playing nice attacking football with a goal difference of 44-27 in just 23 rounds and at home they score more than twice per game (also conceding more than one goal per game). The statistics are pretty telling here. Villarreal is on the back of 2 high scoring matches vs. Osasuna (3-1) and Real Madrid (2-4). The game against Real was one of the most entertaining I watched this year with tons of chances at both ends. For the game against Celta, Villarreal will miss Asenjo and Oliver. Iniguez, Cani, Farinos and Uche are all questionable for the Yellow Sumbarine.

Villarreal lineup: Carlos – Mario, Musacchio, Dorado, Costa – Aquinos, Trigueros, Bruno, Gomez – Santos, Pereira

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Celta Vigo presents itself in very good form with 2 wins and 1 draw in last 3 rounds and holding Bilbao to 0-0 draw last round. On 11 place, Celta has almost no worries with relegation and can play their nice brand of football without too much worries. Celta has a goal difference of 29-35 in 23 rounds and for a team in the second half of the table, they are very offensive and play positive football. They are also much more prone to scoring and conceding goals on the road (3.3 goals score din average in their road games). For this game Celta will miss Bermejo, with Mina questionable.

Celta Vigo lineup: Yoel – Mallo, Fontas, Cabral, Jonny – Krohn-Dehli – Nolito, Rafinha, Lopez, Orellana – Charles

Both teams play attacking football and have statistics of goals per game well over 2,5 in average. Villarreal scores more at home, Celta scores more away. After a low scoring 0-0 with Bilbao I doubt Celta will record another low scoring game … especially since they don`t have any pressure here. Expect Villareal to put pressure since they need the win so bad, and for sure they will create some chances against a Celta side that doesn`t park the bus. The visitors will have their own opportunities on counterattacks. Also, a lot of quality players up front for both teams to take the chances that present themselves. My tip is over 2,5 goals and the odds are pretty good. The downside is that earlier this season the two recorded a 0-0 stalemate but there were different circumstances. Correct score prediction would be something like Villarreal – Celta Vigo 2-1 or 3-2, a hard fought win for the home team.

Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.81 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 15 February