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AS Monaco is still in the title hunt, only 5 points behind PSG in the standings, and they have what appears to be an easy game against Reims at home. However it might be trickier than the 1.30 odds suggest upon a closer analysis.
Even with Radamel Falcao sidelined with a torn ACL, Monaco has put on a 9 match unbeaten run and seems to be in good form. Still, the hosts have struggled a little bit lately, recording 3 consecutive draws (one of them won in extra time) before beating Bastia 2-0 on the road in a tight match, I watched it and Bastia could have gotten a draw. Monaco is a team that is hard to beat for sure, but without Falcao they seem to lack a little bit of that killer instinct – all their last 5 games have been very close if you look at the statistics. Besides Falcao, Monaco has only one other missing player, Abdennour. New signing Berbatov, who missed the game vs. Bastia, will start again after scoring the winning goal against Nice in the cup two matches ago.
Monaco lineup: Subasic – Fabinho, Abidal, Carvalho, Kurzawa – Moutinho, Toulalan, Kondogbia – Rodriguez – Berbatov, Riviere
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Reims is one of the nicest surprises in this Ligue 1 season. The visitors are on the 7th place and after 25 rounds it`s clear they are not just a fluke, but the real deal. After a small crisis of results in late January, Reims is now in very good run of form winning the last 2 matches in Ligue 1 against Guingamp and Bordeaux. The visitors have a very high work-rate, good chemistry and have a very solid tactical organization. Reims is without Conte, Agassa, Pereira, Ouali, De Preville and Devaux. Fofana and Signorino are doubtful but they should be ready come game-time.
Reims lineup: Placide – Mandi, Tacalfred, Weber, Signorino – Krychowiak – Fortes, Oniangue, Albaek, Atar – Charbonnier
I saw Reims holding Monaco to a 1-1 draw earlier this season in a match I have to say Reims could have easily won and maybe even deserved to. Of course, it was a home game for Reims, but Reims did very well this season on the road also, even better than at home, losing just 2 times (statistics: 5 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses). I reckon this in-form and tactically sound Reims side will give a Falcao-less Monaco a run for their money. Monaco to win is still the obvious choice and the hosts could pull it off in the end, but I`ll pick Reims to cover the 1 goal handicap. My main concern is Reims’ lengthy injury list, but they played pretty good in the last two rounds with the current squad. I think the odds on Monaco to win are too low and my tip is Reims +1,5. Correct score prediction would be AS Monaco – Stade de Reims 2-1.
Pick: Reims (+1,5 handicap)
Odds: 1.90 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.20
Event date: 21 February
