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Basel held the in-form Salzburg to a 0-0 draw at home despite the Austrians being heavily favored by punters, and now the swiss side will feel they have a decent chance to produce an upset on the road. Salzburg however is flying high right now and will be confident of finishing the job at home. Interesting matchup here, with some nice betting perspectives as well.
You can easily run out of superlatives describing Salzburg`s season so far. The Austrian team has a 27 point advantage in the domestic league, winning the title already and prior to that 0-0 draw at Basel they were riding a 16 match winning streak in all competitions and also a 10 match winning streak in this year`s Europa League. Also, Salzburg has won the last 14 matches played at home. Indeed, lack of competition in Austria influences these stats a lot, but Salzburg proved its worth in Europe, especially when they destroyed Ajax 6-1 aggregate in the previous round. The hosts’ impressive play is due in large part to their fantastic attacking lineup of Alan (21 games / 21 goals) and Jonathan Soriano (19 / 25), the latter being one of the most underrated players in European football in my opinion after scoring 54 goals in 79 games for Barcelona B without anybody noticing him. Salzburg had an easy game on Sunday, defeating Wolfsberger 5-0 at home.
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Basel came into this tie a bit underrated because of Salzburg’s amazing form, but the swiss side is surely a force to be reckoned with. They have so much European experience and they beat Chelsea twice this season in the Champions League, while also leading the Swiss league with a 5 point advantage over second placed Grasshopers. Basel is on the back of a 5-0 win against Aarau after previously recording 3 draws and has not lost a game since early December, when they were routed 2-0 by Schalke in the Champions League.
Team news: Both sides are missing a couple of players but they will both be able to field competitive lineups and will get two key guys back, who did not play in the first leg: Streller (Basel) and Alan (Salzburg).
I backed Basel to hold their own in the first leg and indeed the bet was won as the swiss side managed to escape with a 0-0 draw – despite missing some players. However, Salzburg was the better team and could have easily won the game with a little bit of luck. This time around, I think the austrian side will complete the job and qualify to the quarterfinals. Home court advantage should be a massive difference maker, with Salzburg losing just once on their own stadium in almost two years, and Basel not being a force on the road, especially in Europe. While the visitors are a good team, seasoned in Europe and able to hold their own against anybody, the hosts are just too strong right now and with Alan back in the starting lineup, himself and Jonathan Soriano should be able to break down Basel`s defense, which is the strong point for the visitors. I don`t expect a blowout, but a 2 goal victory should be in Salzburgs’ reach, especially if they take the lead and force Basel to open up. I don`t see Basel being able to create enough chances to cover for the hosts’ brilliant offensive play.
My tip is Salzburg -1 asian handicap and I can say that compared to the first leg, the odds are decent on Salzburg this time around. Prediction: Red Bull Salzburg – FC Basel 2-0.
Pick: Salzburg (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.74 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.92
Event date: 20 March
