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Goteborg is the odds-on favorite at home against Falkenberg in the 6th round of the Allsvenskan, but the visitors will surely come to fight and would cherish any point they can get.
Goteborg lost its top goalscorer, legend and best player this year as Tobyas Hysen left to China for a chance to earn some more money late in his career. However, he has been replaced well so far by Lase Vibe, who started with 4 goals in 5 games this season. Goteborg also landed a star player in 2011 Allsvenskan player of the year May Mahlangu from Helsingborgs, so they have a solid squad to compete for the title again after finishing 3rd last season. Even so, the hosts did not start 2014 too well, winning just 2 games in 5 rounds, so they need to step it up. They did it in the last home game, trashing a decent Atvidaberg side 5-0 and backed that up with a 1-1 away draw against strong Kalmar last round. All in all, Goteborg clearly shows signs of improvement right now and the poor start to the league is probably just an accident.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Newcomers Falkenberg won a tight race for promotion last year, finishing first in the Superettan, but nevertheless they are considered the main favorites for relegation this season, maybe along with Brommapojkarna and Halmstad. The visitors have a poor squad for this level and clearly proved their shortcomings in the first 5 rounds, losing 4 times and only winning (barely) 1-0 at home against the next worst team in the league to them, Brommapojkarna. Falkenberg lost the last 2 games, allowing 6 goals in the process, and they have the worst defense in the Allsvenskan so far, allowing more than 2 goals per game in average.
The difference between these two sides is huge and it would take something close to a miracle for Falkenberg to be able to challenge Goteborg on the road. The visitors have played rubbish football so far in the league and even Brommapojkarna had a 58% possesion against them, so I expect Goteborg to easily hold the ball today and keep pressing and creating chances. The hosts might have been a little rusty in form to start the league but played very well in the last 2 games. They have the firepower up front to cover handicaps and Falkenberg has an atrocious defense, so I really see something of a repeat of Goteborg’s last home win here (the 5-0 vs. Advitaberg).
My tip is Goteborg to win with -2 asian handicap. I was planning the 1,75 spread but I`ll take the bet on the -2 for a calculated risk considering the excellent odds on Goteborg. Prediction: Goteborg – Falkenberg 4-0.
Pick: Goteborg (-2 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.55 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 12.4
Event date: 25 April
