Bastia – Lille

Bastia will host Lille in the French Ligue 1 round 36, Friday 2 May.

Bastia will finish the season on a nice mid-table position but they still have things to fight for even if relegation or european competitions are out of the question. A reasonable analysis says that Bastia can finish as high as 7th and as low as 15th (4 points separating them from both potential placements), so there`s a big difference with a lot of TV money involved. Bastia has just 4 points in the last 5 matches and lost 4-1 at Lyon last round but they still have one of the best home records in the league: 10 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats. Team news for Bastia say that Cioni, Squillaci and Diakite won’t be able to play and there are also doubts over Palmieri, Krasic and Harek.

Bastia lineup: Landreau – Keita, Modesto, Harek, Palmieri – Boudebouz, Yatabare, Cahuzac – Raspentino, Bruno, Khazri

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Lille needs only 1 point today to make sure they will finish 3rd and qualify for the Champions League. For sure they will probably do it even if they lose, but they will try to and the race now and here. Lille is in very good form having 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 games. They are similar to Atletico Madrid in playing style, playing very good defense and usually winning games by 1 goal, very rarely covering even a 1 goal handicap. Team news for Lille are great, no sure absences, only Marvin Martin is a question mark.

Lille lineup: Enyeama – Beria, Kjaer, Basa, Souare – Balmont, Mavuba, Gueye – Mendes, Kalou, Origi

Lille has higher motivation in this game but it’s not like they will fight for their lives. I don’t think Lille deserves to have odds similar or even lower than Monaco or PSG had at Bastia, so a bet on the visitors is not worth it. The hosts are a very good home team and are not in vacation-mode yet, they will fight for a better placement. Lille is winning games by the slimmest of margins so against a solid and home-strong Bastia side I don`t think they will be able to get that small edge like they did in the last few rounds. Also don’t forget that a draw suits Lille very well and the visitors won only 35% of their away games this season. My tip will be Bastia +0,5 handicap. Correct score prediction: Bastia – Lille 1-1.

Pick: Bastia (+0,5 handicap)
Odds: 2.14 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 9.12
Event date: 2 May