Betdistrict.com
Dominic Thiem will try to back up his win over Wawrinka in the 2nd round, while Feliciano Lopez will feel he regained some form in Madrid after some very poor results in the last couple of months.
Lopez entered this tournament on the back of 3 consecutive straight set losses, the last one against Struff in Barcelona. He played horrible in the last few weeks, with unforced errors taking over his game, and had a poor season overall as well. With clay not being his best surface, Feliciano was surely worried coming into Madrid but he managed to scrape two hard fought 3 set wins against Del Bonis and Youzhny. Nevertheless, he`s still far away from his best level. DelBonis and Youzhny are both totally out of form and even against them Lopez had to work hard to get the wins.
 |
Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Dominic Thiem, the odds-on favorite today, is having a breakout year this season. The talented 20 year old Austrian was long expected to start doing damage on the tour and this season he got some very solid Top 50 wins but also took Murray to 3 sets in Rotterdam. Thiem is in devastating form right now, he passed qualies in Barcelona (lost in 2nd round to finalist Giraldo) and now in Madrid he got some excellent wins in the qualifying tournament and in the main draw. Last round the Austrian defeated Wawrinka in 3 sets. Stan wasn’t exactly at his best but he did play very well and Thiem rised to the occasion with some great tennis.
I reckon Thiem should easily be able to get the best of Feliciano today. The Austrian is playing much better tennis right now, no doubt about that, he is in much better form than Lopez. Thiem is also better suited to the surface and had great results so far on clay this year, while Lopez barely got that two wins against out of form Delbonis and Youzhny. I can see the fast and athletic Thiem moving a rather immobile Lopez all over the place and it will be hard for the spaniard to find an answer to that kind of play. This will be the first meeting between the two.
The only downside for this bet is Thiem’s youth, which always comes with a degree of unpredictability, so at odds of about 1.50 for the simple win there`s always a risk. However, Thiem showed great maturity lately and he is playing good tennis over a long period of time, it`s not just the Wawrinka win. I backed the Austrian to cover the spread against Wawrinka and I will pick a similar outcome this time around. My tip is Thiem to win and cover the 2,5 game spread and I expect him to do it rather easily. Prediction: Feliciano Lopez – Dominic Thiem 6-7 3-6.
Pick: Dominic Thiem (-2,5)
Odds: 1.95 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.6
Event date: 8 May
