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Surely Dolgopolov – Tsonga must be the most anticipated clash of the ATP Rome fist round, but both guys are in shaky form lately and will hope to improve their tennis here in Italy.
Dolgopolov is one of the most inconsistent guys on tour, he has the talent for a top 10 spot but can`t keep up a consistent level of tennis over longer periods of time. This year he seemed to improve his focus a little bit and put on a string of very good performances, highlighted by the semifinal showing at Indian Wells (def. Nadal, lost to Federer), but at the start of the clay court season he lost his form. Dolgopolov has 2 wins and 3 losses on the red dirt so far and is on the back of a 2nd round loss at Madrid. He did defeat Gulbis and Fognini in the last 3 weeks but both were off their rhythm, and Alexandr also lost to Garcia Lopez, Montanes and the same Gulbis, again proving he is inconsistent.
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Tsonga is not in the best shape himself this year. While Dolgopolov did show stellar tennis at times in 2014, Tsonga rarely managed to do so and his 15-9 win loss record sent him outside of the ATP top 10. The frenchman posted his best result of the year when he reached the final at Marseille but was unimpressive elsewhere – however, Jo looked pretty good once the clay season began. Tsonga played vert good tennis in Monte Carlo, losing a tight match to Federer in the quarters. He lost to Giraldo in the Madrid 2nd round but the colombian was in excellent form so it`s understandable.
The Dog might have had the better season overall, but he was totally out of sync on clay, while Tsonga actually improved his game on the red dirt. Jo Wilfried is rightfully favored by the bookies here but his odds are still good enough to worth a try. He has been the more stable player on clay and in all probabilities he should pull off a win today against the out of form Dolgopolov, so a bet on a Tsonga win looks really good in my opinion. The ukrainean leads the H2H 3-2, also winning the last match (which was the only one played on this surface), a tight 3 setter at Madrid in 2012 on the blue clay. My tip is Tsonga to win, and the odds on him are dropping. Prediction: Alexandr Dolgopolov – Jo Wilfried Tsonga 6-4 3-6 2-6.
Pick: Tsonga
Odds: 1.75 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6
Event date: 12 May
