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FC Groningen vs. AZ Alkmaar, 18 May, the second leg of the Europa League playoffs final in Netherlands. First leg was 0-0.
The 0-0 draw in Alkmaar broke an incredible run of 8 consecutive wins for Groningen, but of course they won`t be too upset with that, as they take on a decent result in this 2nd leg and have a chance to qualify for the Europa League at home. Groningen caught some excellent form late in the season with that amazing run of wins, finishing 7th and going on to destroy Vitesse in the playoffs semifinals (1-0, 4-1). The only worrying reason for Groningen right now is that they were clearly the 2nd best team in the first leg, conceding 60% possesion and trailing 16-6 in shots, but they are known to be a strong home team and will hope to be better this time around. Team news for Groningen say that Ben Moussa, Magnasco, Bos and Bakker are out.
Groningen lineup: Bizot – Hateboer, Kappelhof, Botteghin, Burnet – Kieftenbeld, Lindgren – Velden, Chery, Kostic – Zivkovic
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Unlike Groningen, Alkmaar had an abysmal end to the season. Dick Advoocat’s side (Advocaat will leave after this game) won just once in the last 11 games, they are totally out of form, but can take positives for the performance in the first leg where they were the better team and seemed to regain some rhythm. On the other hand AZ has been so poor on the road lately, 5 defeats and 3 draws in the last 8 games, their last road win was vs. Slovan Liberec in February. Team news for AZ say that De Winter, Lewis, Beerens and Avdic will not play.
AZ Alkmaar lineup: Esteban – Johansson, Gouweleeuw, Viergever, Poulsen – Elm, Ortiz, Gudelj – Berghuis, Johansson, Gudmundsson
The teams are expected to line up almost identically to the game last week and there should not be any surprises in tactics. I see form and home court advantage deciding this. Alkmaar played better in the first leg but away from home will be a totally different story and again I see great value in the odds on Groningen (I picked them not to lose last week, also at excellent odds). The difference in form is just too big and Groningen deserves this playoff win; they have been much better in the last 2 months. Groningen won the league home game vs Alkmaar 2-1 this season. My tip is Groningen to win with -0,25 asian handicap. Correct score prediction: Groningen – Alkmaar 2-1.
Pick: Groningen (-0,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.13 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 9.04
Event date: 18 May
