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The two best teams in the NBA this season, win-loss record wise, will square off in the Western Conference finals. Here we have Game 1 in San Antonio on 20th of May and it should be a cracker.
The Spurs had the best record in the league this season (62-20, 32-9 home) and will look to reach the finals for a second consecutive time after losing a heartbreaking Game 7 to the Heat last year. This team just keeps going despite the aging Duncan, Ginobilli and even Parker. Year after year they are out there 1st or 2nd in the regular season and competing for the title – despite people thinking “man, this is their final year, they are done” since about 5-6 seasons now. SAS has the best chemistry and coaching in the league, no doubt about that, and they will feel confident coming into this OKC series. Spurs had a tough round one against Dallas, needing a Game 7 to win, but improved in the 2nd round when they easily took care of business against a strong Portland side, winning all 3 home games by a combined margin of 63 points!
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Oklahoma City (59-23, 25-16 away) had a great year so far, largely because of the MVP season of Kevin Durant. The scoring champion was simply brilliant throughout the regular season and showed up in the playoffs as well. Durant carried this team for a large part of the year when Russel Westbrook was injured and did it fantastic fashion. Westbrook is back in these playoffs, but OKC suffered a blow a couple of days ago when Ibacka got injured, thus missing this series against the Spurs. It`s a huge loss for the Thunder, as Ibacka improved a lot over the last 2 seasons and was an integral part of their game, but the visitors have one of the best benches in the NBA (arguably the best) and there are solutions to replace the power forward. Oklahoma had a very, very tough first round against Memphis, winning 4-3 after a bunch of close games going to overtime, but like San Antonio, improved in the second round to defeat a very strong contender in LA Clippers 4-2.
While the Spurs are arguably the better team between the two, Oklahoma won all 4 meetings in the regular season and seems to have a matchup advantage over San Antonio since they defeated them in the 2011 Conference finals. on the other hand these Spurs are looking better than ever and Ibacka’s injury will surely have a negative impact on this Thunder team.
I don’t particularly like OKC and I hope Spurs will win this series, but it will probably go down to the wire. The fact is that this Game 1 could really go either way and the odds on Oklahoma are way off. Bookies and punters are putting to much emphasys on home court advantage here and the odds have also artificially moved because of the Ibacka injury – which will count, but not that much. OKC holds the matchup advantage, they have beaten SAS 4 times this season and of course they have Durant, who can always change the direction in which a game is going. I see this as 55-45 % for Spurs at best, so clearly there`s a lot of value in the odds on Thunder. My tip is Thunder to win. Prediction: OKC Thunder at SA Spurs 105-103.
Pick: OKC Thunder
Odds: 3.05 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 12.3
Event date: 20 May
As you already know, I completely agree with this. The odds are crazy, of course Thunder are the underdogs playing away from home and missing Ibaka, but this will still be a very tight game. Durant can at any time carry the Thunder without either Westbrook or Ibaka(has done it on many occasions), so at odds over 3, this is a great value bet any day of the week! Durant always manages to find motivation in these moments, and don’t think Thunder’s bench won’t step up, because they will. Great value, and a very nice game and series analysis!