Steaua – Otelul

Steaua Bucharest will celebrate winning the Romanian Liga 1 title when they host Otelul Galati at the Arena Nationala in the last round of the league. Some 40.000 – 50.000 fans are expected to attend the game.

The odds for Steaua are going trough the roof prior to the match. In normal circumstances, Steaua would have 1.20 at most here, but now we are seeing odds as high as 1.60, which surely must represent amazing value. The logic behind this is simple, Steaua won the league 3 rounds ago and has the cup final on Friday, so punters expect them to play with the 2nd team here and not put too much effort in the game. My input is that this logic is dead wrong.

Firstly, Steaua is by far the best team in Romania, no doubt about that, they dominated the league for 2 years in a row with great authority and they are miles away from a team like Otelul in terms of quality. Having got that out of the way, let`s talk circumstances. Indeed Steaua will rest some players in perspective of the Cup final but they will use a mix of regulars and reserves which was good enough for 2 draws in the last 2 rounds against teams much better than Otelul (Pandurii and Petrolul). A key factor here is that the hosts have announced a big celebration for the title after the game and called out the fans to the Arena, there will be a couple tens of thousands, so in these conditions it is obvious that Steaua will field a decent first 11 and will give it all for the win. Last year in a very similar situation (without a Cup final to play though), Steaua defeated Brasov 4-0, Brasov being a team very similar to Otelul in both quality and style of play.

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But how about Otelul. The visitors are on the 10th place, escaping the drop last round after a 4-1 win against relegation rivals Viitorul. The team is in very good form with 3 consecutive wins but we all know how the end of the season works, especially in European football, and they had very poor opponents. Otelul will surely be relaxed for this game now that they assured themsels Liga 1 football next year, something which looked highly unlikely a month ago. On top of this, the Galati side has big financial problems, the players are not paid and even thought about a riot, but decided to wait until the Steaua match to talk to the ownership. Otelul has also been a non factor on the road this season, losing 11 out of 17 road matches.

Otelul was very close to beating Steaua earlier this season in Galati (1-1), but at home Steaua is a different animal. In 27 games they won 18, drew 7 and only lost 2 – this including Champions League. In Romania they have 12 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss. Their only home defeats came against Chelsea and Vaslui (in a match highly suspected of being fixed) and they easily defeated Otelul 2-0 in the Cup, covering the handicap in a match in which they rested a lot of players.

Steaua has nothing left to fight for and has that Cup final on Friday, but the visitors are also care-free, unpaid and worried about their future. Surely one can`t explain an increase in odds from 1.35 to 1.60 in these circumstances. I expect Steaua to enter the pitch motivated to prove their worth to their fans in a sellout Arena, trying to rise to the occasion and help make this a memorable night. Even with a couple of starters missing they have a lot of depth and should be able to easily hold off Otelul, just like they did in the Romanian Cup. My tip is Steaua to win and I expect the odds to start dropping at some point, because things have got out of control in my opinion. Value all over the place on this one, I`m itching to try a handicap but I don`t want to ruin the profit on this bet if Steaua wins by one. Prediction: Steaua Bucharest – Otelul Galati 2-0.

Pick: Steaua Bucharest
Odds: 1.62 @ William Hill
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 6.20
Event date: 20 May