Berlocq – Mahut

The odds-on favorite Carlos Berlocq and Nicolas Mahut will square off in the ATP Nice 2nd round, in a match between a natural clay courter and a grass court player.

Berlocq is well known to be a lover of the red dirt, this is by far his best surface and fits his baseline playing style perfectly. This season he played decent on clay, especially 2 weeks ago when he won the Oeiras tournament with a fantastic final win over Tomas Berdych. Some other victims of his this season on clay were Seppi or Raonic, pretty impressive. After the Oeiras win he lost in the qualies at Rome last week to Ramos, but fatigue surely had something to do with it and he should be ready to go here in Nice. Carlos played a good match in the first round despite losing a set to Benneteau.

Wide markets and in-play betting coverage. Get 100% first deposit bonus (25£) by registering at Winner.com now!

Mahut has played some of the best tennis of his career last season, but clay has always been a disaster for the frenchman and this season has been no different. Nicolas has 4 losses in 5 games on the red dirt this year, all coming in straight sets. His only win was impressive, over Thiem in Monte Carlo, but it was a singular event. I watched Mahut in Bucharest a couple of weeks ago and he was simply hopeless in a 6-3 6-1 defeat to Mathieu, he couldn`t cope with his opponent’s clay court skills and was vastly outplayed. Here in Nice Mathieu needed 3 sets to defeat the 309th ranked Martin Vaisse in the first round.

Mahut leads the H2H 1-0 and that win came on clay, but it was way back in 2006 when the circumstances were totally different. The matchup surely favors Berlocq on clay against a serve & volley tipe of player like Mahut. The surface is the key in this match, no doubt about that.

I expect the argentinian to play solid tennis here and come up with an easy win. Not only is Berlocq an arguably better player and in much better form, but he is one of the best grinders and passers on this surface and will easily pass Mahut every time the frenchman rushes to the net. Mahut would need to be in the best serving day of his life and hit Federer – like winners to stand a chance in this game, but this is unlikely to happen. I can`t any solutions for him to outplay Berlocq for a stretch longer than 2-3 games, he does not have the style to do it on clay, so him winning a set is highly improbable. I will take the 2-0 on Berlocq instead of a handicap despite lower odds, in case Mahut serves his way to a tiebreak or a 6-4 6-4 defeat, but I expect the handicap to be covered as well. This is a no-contest on clay between these two and I have high confidence in this bet. My tip is Berlocq 2-0. Prediction: Carlos Berlocq – Nicolas Mahut 6-4 6-2.

Pick: Berlocq 2:0
Odds: 1.70 @ Winner
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.30
Event date: 21 May