Simon – Berlocq

Gilles Simon will take on Carlos Berlocq in the ATP Nice quarterfinals. The odds suggest Simon is the favorite here, but he`s form is not so great and Berlocq surely has a fighting chance to advance to the semis.

It hasn`t been a good year for Simon at all so far. The frenchman dropped to number 30 in the standings and posted a win loss record of 7-11, which barely is top 100 material. The clay court season did not help Gilles too much, he did not win consecutive matches on the main draw in any tournament and lost to guys like Rosol, Gabashvili, Kubot or Delbonis. However, Simon played his best match of the year last week in Rome when he challenged Nadal in a 6-7 7-6 2-6 defeat, some great tennis from Gilles even though Nadal was not at his best. Here in Nice Simon had a bye in the first round and got a good win against Thiem in the 2nd round, even if he lost a set. Overall a horrible season for the frenchman, but his last two matches have shown clear signs of improvement.

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Berlocq is a natural clay courter, his grinding baseline style of tennis is perfectly suited for the red dirt and he proved his capabilities on the surface 3 weeks ago, winning the Oeiras title, a tournament in which he defeated two top 10 players in Raonic and Berdych. Carlos lost in Rome last week in the first qualifying round against Ramos, but clearly he was a little bit tired after Oeiras and the loss gave him time to recover for Nice. Here in France, Carlos played two solid matches to defeat Benneteau (3 sets) and Mahut (2 sets). The argentinian is in good form and will feel confident coming into the Simon encounter.

These two have met 7 times before on the ATP tour with Simon leading 4-3 (3-3 on clay). Berlocq however won the last meeting, a massive 4 set victory in the Davis Cup last year, one of the biggest wins of his career. The matchup does not favor any of these two, but clearly Berlocq likes clay more than Gilles, so the surface will be a small advantage for him.

If we exclude the last two matches that Simon played, this would be a no-brainer pick on Berlocq. The argentinian loves the surface, is in great form and is generally very hard to beat on the red dirt, while Simon played horrible tennis all year. However, we can’t ignore that Gilles improved a little bit in his last two games and looks on track to regain his best rhythm and form. Despite this, he is still far away from his best level of play and you can’t place a bet on him based just on two good matches after 5 months of pathetic efforts. Berlocq is the more consistent player and lately he showed better tennis than Simon did even in his last two matches, so my tip here will be Berlocq to win. It should be a close one, but Carlos has the first chance and the odds are too good to pass. Prediction: Gilles Simon – Carlos Berlocq 4-6 6-3 3-6.

Pick: Berlocq
Odds: 2.05 @ Winner
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.35
Event date: 22 May