Groth – Mahut

Very interesting encounter betting-wise in the 3rd round at the grass court event in Newport, with big-serving Australian Samuel Groth taking on the reigning champion Nicolas Mahut from France.

Groth recorded two wins in minimum sets over Young (7-6 6-3) and Jaziri (7-6 7-6), not exactly top class opposition, but a good performance from Groth nevertheless. The Australian is in the form of his life right now, finally finding consistency on his colossal serve, surely one of the best 5 on tour right now. Groth has been broken just once so far at Newport and he’s on a good run of performances, getting some decent wins on grass this season and playing the doubles semifinal at Roland Garros.

Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle.

Mahut is one of the few true grass court players left in the game, he had the best season of his career last year, but in 2014 he didn`t quite impress and even on grass his performances were sub-par. However, he is still a much better player than Groth and here at Newport he is a force to be reckoned with. After a relatively slow start against Arguello (7-6 6-4), he played much better in the second round against a dangerous Saville, winning 6-4 6-2 and increasing his level of play. I reckon we can expect some of the best tennis from Mahut after getting into the rhythm at his favorite tournament.

The H2H score is 0-0, the two players have never met before. A matchup analysis is pretty simple here, both guys are great servers, Groth an exceptional one actually. Both like to play on grass, with an edge for Mahut. Tiebreaks are to be expected.

The current 24,5 line at Pinnacle seems high, but I think 25,5 would actually be the correct one. Groth’s serve is untouchable right now and Mahut is not the best returner out there, while the frenchman should comfortably serve & volley his way to easy service games himself, as Groth is a pathetic returner. Three sets is a real possibility here the way Groth has been serving and playing, but if there won`t be 3 sets the chances are it will end in two tiebreaks, so it`s great that we can rely on that outcome if we bet on the over. The analysis is very straightforward here, expect a tight encounter played on serve, with the outcome being decided by the slimmest of margins. My tip is over 24,5 games to be played. Expect the the odds to drop on this bet. Regarding the winner market, I can see Mahut edging this one in the end. Prediction: Samuel Groth – Nicolas Mahut 7-6 6-7 6-7.

Pick: over 24,5 games
Odds: 1.97 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.76
Event date: 10 July