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American hope Jack Sock will meet Australian legend Lleyton Hewitt on the Newport grass in a clash of styles and generations.
Sock entered Newport just after his win at the doubles tournament in Wimbledon, so there were some questions about his fitness and motivation, but the American dismissed them with 3 straight set wins against Kuznetsov, Ram and most notably Isner yesterday. However, while Sock is clearly fit and focused, his game was not as good as the results suggest and he had a rather peculiar road to the semis. The first round against Kuznetsov was closer than the score suggests and in the second round Sock fended off 6 break points in the first set to break Ram at his only opportunity – more so, Ram had 9 total break points, Sock 4. Ram won 29 points against serve, Sock just 18 – and it ended with an apparently straightforward 7-5 6-2 result for Jack.
The match against Isner (6-4 7-6) was the weirdest I`ve seen in a long time, even though I have to admit I did not watch the first set. Not to say that Isner gifted the win to his friend, but big John was very strange especially in the 2nd set tiebreak: he missed 2 sitting forehands inches away from the net, shots that were basically impossible to miss, and conceded a ball to Sock in a crucial moment, a ball that the referee had called out. Indeed, the two exchanged these kind of acts of fair play during the match, but the thing is this ball clearly looked out – a ball that swinged the whole tiebreak in Sock’s favor. Overall Isner did not look focused, he showed none of his usual emotions and fist pumps. Even in these conditions, he was the better player especially in the 2nd set, he had 3 break points compared to Sock’s one and won just 4 less total points despite losing 2-0 – which is a remarkable feat in it`s own. Point is, Sock has been rather shaky this tournament. Watching the second set with Isner yesterday, Sock’s first really solid point was at 5-4 in the tiebreak (!!), aside from this there were all kinds of scrambled balls at the net, serve winners and Isner errors. Leaving Newport aside, Sock has played pretty good tennis this year, his best season to date, but is still not Top 50 material and was pulverized by Raonic in the 2nd round at Wimbledon.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Hewitt reached the final last year at Newport and he simply loves the grass here. After struggling with his game in the last few months, Hewitt came out with some good tennis at Wimbledon, losing a close 5 setter to Janowicz in the 2nd round. Lleyton actually had a miserable last couple of months, but he proved he can still play at a high level in the first tournament of the year, when he won Brisbane beating Federer in the final, so if he is on his day he can still compete. Newport did not start too good for him, he had big problems against Harrison and probably should have lost that one, but after grinding out a win against the American he improved his tennis a lot in the next 2 rounds for two dominant 2 set wins against dangerous players like Pavic and Johnson.
The H2H is 0-0, this will be the first match between the two, but we can easily complile a matchup analysis and it clearly favors Hewitt: firstly, the Australian loves to play against big servers, he has an excellent return. He loves to play against unforced error – prone big hitters like Sock: even if he can’t cover the court like before, he can still keep the ball in play and force / wait for an error. Not lastly, Lleyton is one of the best grass court players of his generation, while Sock, despite having a game which is well suited for grass, is only now developing an ATP-level game on the green.
There`s a reason for which the bookies have opened with odds as low as 1.50 for Hewitt despite Sock’s 2 set win over Isner. Jack`s results have been completely misleading so far, he did not play great tennis at all, while Hewitt is improving and looked better with every match he played. Now, of course Sock can all of a sudden come out with his “A game” tonight, but how often does a thing like that happen? If Sock plays like he did so far, he will definitely lose this one. If he comes up with his best performance, Hewitt is still in with a chance, he is playing good tennis and has the matchup advantage with his great return of serve. Also, Hewitt has just played a very simillar opponent to Sock (Johnson), while the American has just faced 2 completely different players than Hewitt (Ram, Isner), so that will give another advantage for Lleyton in the matchup department. I feel Hewitt to win is a great investment so I will bet maximum stakes on this tip. Simply put, Hewitt is still the better player (not by much), has more experience, is better on grass, has played better tennis this week and has the matchup advantage. Experience WILL count, especially since Sock is in his first ATP level semifinal. Now listen, I don`t want to create the wrong impression that Sock was rubbish and this is a “sure bet”, he played OK to reach this stage, but he is clearly overrated at the moment, Hewitt holds the advantage in almost every department and while the age is an advantage for the American, youth alone should not save him today, especially if we consider the fact that Hewitt did not play so much tennis lately and should be fresh.
I expect the odds on Hewitt to increase, so you might want to wait and take this bet a little later in the day, or at least wait and see how the price moves – unfortunately I can`t post the pick and the analysis 1 hour before the match, so I`ll have to settle for lesser odds. Hewitt to win. Prediction: Jack Sock – Lleyton Hewitt 3-6 6-7.
Pick: Lleyton Hewitt
Odds: 1.72 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 7.2
Event date: 12 July
