Start – Bodo/Glimt

Start Kristiansand hosts Bodo/Glimt in Round 16 of the Norwegian Tippeligaen. Teams are tied in points, sitting on the 10th and 11th place respectively.

Start struggled to start the season but recent form is great for the hosts: 3 wins in the last 4 games and 2 consecutive wins in the last 2 games. This success can be attributed to an improvement in the offensive department but Start still has huge problems defensively, conceding at least a goal in the last 15 league matches, so that means they did not keep a single clean sheet this season!

Bodo/Glimt is just behind Start in the standings on 11th place, with the same number of points and almost the same goal difference. Unlike Start, Bodo/Glimt is on a downside regarding form: 2 consecutive losses and just 1 point in the last 4 games sent them from Europa League contention to a place threatened by relegation. Interesting stat, Bodo/Glimt has also failed to keep a clean sheet this season!

Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle.

Now this is a match between two teams that have allowed at least a goal in every match this year, making for 15 matches without a clean sheet for each side. In Start’s matches there is an average of 3.2 goals/game being scored. Start has 10 matches with over 2,5 goals this season and just 5 with under 2,5 goals. In bodo/Glimt’s matches there is an average of 3.13 goals/game being scored. Bodo Glimt has 11 matches with over 2,5 goals this season and just 4 with under 2,5 goals. The H2H says that all the last 3 matches finished with at least 3 goals. Earlier this season it was 2-1 for Bodo/Glimt.

Taking these stats into consideration, clearly over 2,5 is the best bet on this game, specially since the odds are higher than expected (but are dropping fast). Now, we know that at one point these two will find a way to keep a clean sheet and stats do not mean anything .. also sometimes two high scoring teams do not produce a high scoring game … but the thing is if you watched a couple of games from Start and Bodo/Glimt you saw just how easy it is to create chances, a lot of football played on counters, with open spaces, fast pace. It does not look likely for any side to improve defensively in the near future, but they can score a lot of goals. The matchup between the two is almost a guarantee for goal scoring opportunities (which is also proved by the H2H presented above) and I think only a very high number of missed chances could make this bet a loser. My tip will be over 2,5 goals. Correct score prediction: Start – Bodo/Glimt 2-2.

Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.65 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.85
Event date: 19 July