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Home favorite Philipp Kohlschreiber takes on the in-form Argentinean Leonardo Mayer in the Hamburg semifinals.
Kohlschreiber had a decent season so far, but he did not really produce the level of tennis he was accustomed to, not regularly at least. He entered Hamburg on the back of two disappointing 2nd round exits to Bolelli at Wimbledon and to Rosol at Sturrgart, but the German pulled himself together and played some of his best tennis of the season here at home, maybe even the best. Philipp was impressive in dispatching Elias, Simon and Rosol without losing a single set. He met really solid and in-form opposition but he played consistently good and served very well, a situation in which he is dominant and very hard to beat. His great form this week is not a massive surprise, as Kohlschreiber usually delivers at home, he already did it this year as well when he won Dusseldorf before Roland Garros.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Mayer is a player that on his best day can mix it up with the best in the World, he has excellent potential but is not consistent, we remember him losing even to 44 year old legend Thomas Muster a couple of years ago. Luckily for Mayer he found his best rhythm this week, winning all his matches in straight sets. Even if he did not meet top class opposition, he got solid wins over in-form emerging players like Thiem or Lajovic, playing really solid tennis throughout the whole tournament.
Surprisingly, Mayer leads the H2H 2-0 and did not even lose a set to Kohlschreiber. However, both meetings were very close: 7-6 7-6 7-5 in 2012 at Roland Garros, 6-4 7-6 in 2013 at Kitzbuhel. Both meetings were played on clay and both players like this surface.
I think the odds for Kohlschreiber are a bit low – he is the favorite, but Mayer has a fighting chance here if we take into account his talent, his form and the H2H. Listen, the guy can play when he`s in form, and right now he is. I expect this match to be close and heavily contested. Both guys are at the top of their game right now and played brilliant tennis this week, it`s hard to see any of them losing by a big margin. Both are power hitters with good serve, so even if a couple of breaks are expected on clay, generally they should be able to keep their service games. Seeing that 3 of the previous 5 sets of their direct meetings on clay went to a tiebreak, we can expect one today as well, and 3 sets is a very possible scenario also. I love the 22,5 game line, the odds are great as well and I`m happy to tip the over 22,5 games bet here. Regarding the winner market, I can see Kohlschreiber just edging this at home. Prediction: Philipp Kohlschreiber – Leonardo Mayer 7-6 4-6 7-5.
Pick: over 22,5 games
Odds: 2.02 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.16
Event date: 19 July
