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Victor Estrella Burgos is looking to reach his first ever ATP level final, but the talented, nonconformist Australian Bernard Tomic will be a tough nut to crack. Clash of generations here.
Listen, I respect Estrella a lot. This guy is playing the best tennis of his life right now even if he`s close to 34 years old, and just got the biggest win of his career yesterday against Richard Gasquet. The 6-3 6-4 victory was impressive, especially considering that Estrella only put in 45% of his first serves. However, without taking too much credit from the Dominican player, the fact is that Gasquet did not come prepared and focused here at Bogota, a small tournament. He played poor against Groth in the first round as well, played even worse today and his exit is not a complete shocker. Estrella is playing good tennis, he did not lose a set against Londero, Polanski and Gasquet, but he does have certain limitations and we shouldn’t look to much at his victory against Richard.
The talented Bernard Tomic is struggling to fulfill his potential, he does not manage to find consistency in his play, but this week he played some of his best tennis in a long time – and it`s not a complete surprise, given the fact that he played an excellent match against Berdych in Wimbledon as well. Tomic easily dispatched Dustov, Falla and Pospisil so far without losing a single set. These might not be world-beating players, but Falla and Pospisil are no mugs, Falla actually had a final to defend here in his hometown tournament. Right now Tomic is going in the right direction and the way he has been playing this week, he looks like the favorite to win the whole thing. He cut down his unforced errors a lot, serves well, plays more aggressive than usually.
Despite cracking the TOP 100 for the first time this year, Estrella actually leads Tomic 1-0 in the H2H category and his win came just a couple of months ago on clay in 2 sets. However, Tomic hates clay, and he was in a much worse shape than he is now. An analysis of the matchup will not reveal anything worth mentioning.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
There are a couple of factors that are artificially increasing the odds for Tomic here. First, there`s Estrella victory against Gasquet with that impressive scoreline, but as I said Richard was far from his best and we know he can lose to anyone when he`s not focused. There`s also the fact that the match is played in South America, which favors Estrella, but this can only have a limited impact. Not lastly, Estrella`s win this year surely has something to do with the opening odds, but as I previously said the circumstances were totally different.
I reckon Tomic has much more going for him today than Estrella. Firstly, he`s a much better player of course, and he is in excellent form. I do not think Estrella has the weapons to defeat a player of Tomic’s quality if that player is in good form, and this is the key argument here. I really don`t see Estrella having what it takes to pull off such a feat – he`s a good challenger player, that`s it, he is in good form for his standards but benefited from an easy draw until meeting a Gasquet who was not really interested in winning the match – he was painful to watch on the return, just hitting the ball in disgust. Tomic’s youth should also help him against a 34 year old player, especially since Tomic is a defensive player that forces you to run and hit an extra-shot on most points. Of course, there`s also a chance that Estrella will suffer a letdown after the biggest win of his life. All in all I think the bookies got this totally wrong, and the odds have stared to drop just minutes after they were released – in the time I wrote this pick, Pinnacle dropped the price 2 times from 1.72 to 1.66 and than 1.65. Tomic is in excellent form, playing excellent tennis, and he should be able to easily dispatch Estrella without ever being in real danger to lose. Considering the odds, I must go with 10 units, the value is just great. Anything over 1.50 on Tomic is worth a bet with high stakes in my humble opinion. My tip is Tomic to win, expect him to push Estrella until he forces errors from him, with the Dominican eventually running out of steam. Prediction: Victor Estrella Burgos – Bernard Tomic 6-7 4-6. Of course, I reckon you should take the bet early if you agree with my analysis, I`m pretty sure the odds will continue to drop.
Pick: Bernard Tomic
Odds: 1.65 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 6.5
Event date: 19 July
