Odds-on favorites Kalmar will feel this is their best chance to get back to winning ways, as they are hosting the last placed team in the Allsvenskan, Brommapojkarna.
Listen, Kalmar may not have the big names of Malmo or Goteborg, but this is a quality side which can surely finish in the top 5 at the end of the season. They had a great start in the league, but lately they haverecorded some negative results and dropped to the 5th place, so they really need a win here. If you look at the fact that they won 1 point in the last 3 matches you might say that the team is in bad form, but Kalmar has excuses for these results – they met Malmo (twice) and AIK, with tho of the three matches being played on the road. Now, against a much weaker opponent and at home, Kalmar should feel confident they can get the 3 points which they badly want. The hosts have yet to lose a game on their home court this season, posting 4 wins and 4 draws in 8 games.
Brommapojkarna seems to be a lock for relegation right now. The minnows have gained just 8 points in 16 matches, a dreadful performance which sees them sitting on the last place, 8 points away from safety. The visitors have lost 8 of their last 14 matches and only defeated Crusaders and VPS in the Europa League during this run (Brommapojkarna got there due to fair play rankings). Indeed, lately Brommapojkarna has been able to get some draws but not against top opposition and not away. On the road Brommapojkarna has gained just 1 point (!!!) in 8 matches this season. Additionally, they are on the back of a bad 0-3 home defeat to Torino, a match in which they played with 10 men for more than a half.
Listen, I don`t want to underestimate Brommapojkarna – they are better than the 8 points they gained in the league and at times can be hard to break down, but still they are arguably the weakest side in the country and they play on the road against a very good opponent. The fact that Kalmar has not won in 3 games gives them excellent odds here, and as I said their form is misleading – they had the toughest possible opposition. Quality and home court advantage should make the difference here, especially considering how good Kalmar is at home and how poor Brommapojkarna is on the road. I am also counting on the fact that the visitors will be tired, they are not used to playing so often and dealing with European matches. After having to run around with 10 men against a team like Torino on Thursday, I can easily see them being fatigued today.
My tip is Kalmar -1 asian handicap. A bet on Kalmar to win seems really solid, but I would not go for bigger handicaps, as Brommapojkarna will park the bus and they might be able to keep the result respectable. I will take a calculated risk and bet high stakes on this pick. Prediction: Kalmar – Brommapojkarna 2-0.
Pick: Kalmar (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.93 @ Bet365
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.37
Event date: 3 August