Zwolle – Ajax

Dutch SuperCup, Zwolle vs. Ajax, match will be played at Amsterdam ArenA so Ajax is actually the host of the game.

Zwolle finished only on the 11th place last season in Eredivisie, but made an amazing impact to win the Cup 5-1 vs. today`s opponent. It was a shocking result in Rotterdam, Ajax led 1-0 early but Zwolle came back and put 5 goals past their more seasoned opponents. For sure today Zwolle must worry not only because of Ajax’s strength, but also because their quest for revenge. For this season Zwolle is expecting to finish better, they looked pretty good in the warm up games in the summer. But they lost some key players from last year so it will be a hard task for them. Team news for Zwolle do not reveal any big absentees.

Zwolle lineup: Boer – van Polen, Sainsbury, Broerse, van Hintum – Rienstra, Mokotjo – Karagounis, Saymak, Drost – Thomas

Ajax looks like the dominant force in Dutch football, they won the league rather comfortably last year and again are looking very good this year prior to the start of the season. Ajax played brilliant football in friendlies beating sides like Real Sociedad and Ajax in the last few weeks, actually won 6 of the 7 friendly games they played. Ajax lost Siem De Jong, Poulsen and Bojan in the summer but they brought in replacements and will hope their game doesn’t drop. Team news for Ajax say van Rhijn and Fischer are out of this match.

Ajax Amsterdam lineup: Vermeer – Ligeon, Moisander, Viegever, Boilesen – Blind, Klaasen, Schone – Serero, Milik, Sigthorsson

In my opinion the odds on Ajax are a joke here, not only because Zwolle won 5-1 in the Cup final but because Zwolle is a good side and always gave a fight to Ajax. Last season in the league Ajax won 2-1 at home and got a 1-1 draw away. Ajax also lost a couple of key players, they will need some time to regain their rhythm; the same can be said about Zwolle, but Zwolle is not the team which has odds 1.25 here. Also after the 5-1 humiliation last season I expect Ajax to play more careful, I don’t think they will go all out attack to get revenge by scoring 5 themselves, I think they will try to avoid conceding and simply win the Cup with 1-0 or 2-0. Zwolle +1,5 handicap looks a good value bet but for me under 3,5 goals is better because if they are on their day Ajax can win 2-0, covering the handicap. I see a tight game between 2 teams that know eachother and respect eachother with a trophy to play for, so I don’t think we will see a typical Dutch game with 4 or 5 goals. So that will be my tip, under 3,5 goals. Correct score prediction: FC Zwolle – Ajax Amsterdam 0-2.

Pick: under 3,5 goals
Odds: 1.75 @ Bwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6
Event date: 3 August