BATE – Debrecen

BATE Borisov vs. Debrecen, Champions League 3rd qualifying round, second leg. In the first match Debrecen got a great 1-0 win at home, so they are the odds-on favorites to go trough, but will have tough game in Belarus.

BATE is struggling: only 2nd in the poor Belarussian league, won only 1 of the last 5 games overall, advanced to this UCL stage via 2 draws vs. Skenderbreu … so the defeat to Debrecen in the first leg was not so surprising. It was a balanced game but Debrecen was a little more sharp and deserved the win … could have even made it 2-0 in the end but missed some breaks. BATE needs at least 2 goals to qualify here (or 1-0 and penalties) but they scored 2 goals in just 4 of the last 11 games and more recently had big problems scoring.

Debrecen has only 1 point in the 2 games played in the Hungarian league this season and lost to MTK 1-0 at the weekend. But for Debrecen focus is 100% on Champions League at the moment, so they did not put their best effort domestically … also rested some players. Debrecen is not a great side in quality and they are a little bit weaker than BATE, but they compensate with good discipline, tactical organization and some dangerous players up front who can do damage against any team.

BATE Borisov does not look like a team to be trusted at the moment, so I am sure that Debrecen can hit them on the breaks. I don’t see BATE scoring if they don’t go all out attack … and if they go all out attack they will probably concede, Debrecen is dangerous if given spaces. So it will be very tough for the hosts to qualify given their current form, I think Debrecen has an enough advantage from the first leg to qualify; the odds do not do them justice, they are clear favorites to advance, they should probably have max. 1.50 odds. Punters seem to be betting on BATE to win, but bookmakers were not stupid to open with odds of almost 1.80 for BATE to win. My tip will be Debrecen to qualify; I will bet on the better organized team to get past the out of form favorite who is out of shape and is not even so much better in quality. BATE will not even win the match in my opinion. Prediction: BATE Borisov – Debrecen 1-1.

Pick: Debrecen to qualify
Odds: 1.57 @ Bet365
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.13
Event date: 5 August